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Spatial dynamics of meningococcal meningitis in Niger: observed patterns in comparison with measles

Record type: Article

Throughout the African meningitis belt, meningococcal meningitis outbreaks occur only during the dry season. Measles in Niger exhibits similar seasonality, where increased population density during the dry season probably escalates measles transmission. Because meningococcal meningitis and measles are both directly transmitted, we propose that host aggregation also impacts the transmission of meningococcal meningitis. Although climate affects broad meningococcal meningitis seasonality, we focus on the less examined role of human density at a finer spatial scale. By analysing spatial patterns of suspected cases of meningococcal meningitis, we show fewer absences of suspected cases in districts along primary roads, similar to measles fadeouts in the same Nigerien metapopulation. We further show that, following periods during no suspected cases, districts with high reappearance rates of meningococcal meningitis also have high measles reintroduction rates. Despite many biological and epidemiological differences, similar seasonal and spatial patterns emerge from the dynamics of both diseases. This analysis enhances our understanding of spatial patterns and disease transmission and suggests hotspots for infection and potential target areas for meningococcal meningitis surveillance and intervention

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Citation

Bharti, N., Broutin, H., Grais, R.F., Ferrari, M.J., Djibo, A., Tatem, A.J. and Grenfell, B.T. (2012) Spatial dynamics of meningococcal meningitis in Niger: observed patterns in comparison with measles Epidemiology and Infection, 140, (8), pp. 1356-1365. (doi:10.1017/S0950268811002032). (PMID:22009033).

More information

Published date: August 2012
Keywords: epidemiology, measles (rubeola), meningitis - bacterial, spatial modelling, vaccine-preventable diseases
Organisations: Geography & Environment, PHEW – P (Population Health)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 344404
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/344404
ISSN: 0950-2688
PURE UUID: e851aea6-cd23-4327-bfc1-4a7a5c570845
ORCID for A.J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 07 Nov 2012 11:14
Last modified: 18 Jul 2017 05:16

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Contributors

Author: N. Bharti
Author: H. Broutin
Author: R.F. Grais
Author: M.J. Ferrari
Author: A. Djibo
Author: A.J. Tatem ORCID iD
Author: B.T. Grenfell

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