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Measles hotspots and epidemiological connectivity

Measles hotspots and epidemiological connectivity
Measles hotspots and epidemiological connectivity
Though largely controlled in developed countries, measles remains a major global public health issue. Regional and local transmission patterns are rooted in human mixing behaviour across spatial scales. Identifying spatial interactions that contribute to recurring epidemics helps define and predict outbreak patterns. Using spatially explicit reported cases from measles outbreaks in Niger, we explored how regional variations in movement and contact patterns relate to patterns of measles incidence. Because we expected to see lower rates of re-introductions in small, compared to large, populations, we measured the population-size corrected proportion of weeks with zero cases across districts to understand relative rates of measles re-introductions. We found that critical elements of spatial disease dynamics in Niger are agricultural seasonality, transnational contact clusters, and roads networks that facilitate host movement and connectivity. These results highlight the need to understand local patterns of seasonality, demographic characteristics, and spatial heterogeneities to inform vaccination policy
infectious disease control, infectious disease epidemiology, measles (rubeola), spatial modelling, vaccine-preventable diseases
0950-2688
1308-1316
Bharti, N.
14714667-2a53-46e3-90fc-357a264dbdbc
Djibo, A.
4ab3f2b5-1b13-4540-a11b-64187ac12eee
Ferrari, M J.
c4f0cb01-c3ad-4e95-ae39-739f015080f5
Grais, R.F.
1deddd5c-6b84-4234-b7d7-cf6f398eac6d
Tatem, A.J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
McCabe, C.A.
39179848-5742-4bb5-96a7-26f78dea7427
Bjornstad, O.N.
fcf8d6ee-8968-43e6-81f9-250f0fc3f47a
Grenfell, B.T.
eba8efe9-8276-41b0-9cd2-387c19742080
Bharti, N.
14714667-2a53-46e3-90fc-357a264dbdbc
Djibo, A.
4ab3f2b5-1b13-4540-a11b-64187ac12eee
Ferrari, M J.
c4f0cb01-c3ad-4e95-ae39-739f015080f5
Grais, R.F.
1deddd5c-6b84-4234-b7d7-cf6f398eac6d
Tatem, A.J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
McCabe, C.A.
39179848-5742-4bb5-96a7-26f78dea7427
Bjornstad, O.N.
fcf8d6ee-8968-43e6-81f9-250f0fc3f47a
Grenfell, B.T.
eba8efe9-8276-41b0-9cd2-387c19742080

Bharti, N., Djibo, A., Ferrari, M J., Grais, R.F., Tatem, A.J., McCabe, C.A., Bjornstad, O.N. and Grenfell, B.T. (2010) Measles hotspots and epidemiological connectivity. Epidemiology and Infection, 138 (9), 1308-1316. (doi:10.1017/S0950268809991385). (PMID:20096146)

Record type: Article

Abstract

Though largely controlled in developed countries, measles remains a major global public health issue. Regional and local transmission patterns are rooted in human mixing behaviour across spatial scales. Identifying spatial interactions that contribute to recurring epidemics helps define and predict outbreak patterns. Using spatially explicit reported cases from measles outbreaks in Niger, we explored how regional variations in movement and contact patterns relate to patterns of measles incidence. Because we expected to see lower rates of re-introductions in small, compared to large, populations, we measured the population-size corrected proportion of weeks with zero cases across districts to understand relative rates of measles re-introductions. We found that critical elements of spatial disease dynamics in Niger are agricultural seasonality, transnational contact clusters, and roads networks that facilitate host movement and connectivity. These results highlight the need to understand local patterns of seasonality, demographic characteristics, and spatial heterogeneities to inform vaccination policy

Full text not available from this repository.

More information

Published date: September 2010
Keywords: infectious disease control, infectious disease epidemiology, measles (rubeola), spatial modelling, vaccine-preventable diseases
Organisations: Geography & Environment, PHEW – P (Population Health)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 344405
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/344405
ISSN: 0950-2688
PURE UUID: 68a4dee5-924b-4ae4-a89e-af7a825550aa
ORCID for A.J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 07 Nov 2012 11:10
Last modified: 06 Jun 2018 12:28

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