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Quantifying the number of pregnancies at risk of malaria in 2007: a demographic study

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Background: comprehensive and contemporary estimates of the number of pregnancies at risk of malaria are not currently available, particularly for endemic areas outside of Africa. We derived global estimates of the number of women who became pregnant in 2007 in areas with Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax transmission.

Methods and findings: a recently published map of the global limits of P. falciparum transmission and an updated map of the limits of P. vivax transmission were combined with gridded population data and growth rates to estimate total populations at risk of malaria in 2007. Country-specific demographic data from the United Nations on age, sex, and total fertility rates were used to estimate the number of women of child-bearing age and the annual rate of live births. Subregional estimates of the number of induced abortions and country-specific stillbirths rates were obtained from recently published reviews. The number of miscarriages was estimated from the number of live births and corrected for induced abortion rates. The number of clinically recognised pregnancies at risk was then calculated as the sum of the number of live births, induced abortions, spontaneous miscarriages, and stillbirths among the population at risk in 2007. In 2007, 125.2 million pregnancies occurred in areas with P. falciparum and/or P. vivax transmission resulting in 82.6 million live births. This included 77.4, 30.3, 13.1, and 4.3 million pregnancies in the countries falling under the World Health Organization (WHO) regional offices for South-East-Asia (SEARO) and the Western-Pacific (WPRO) combined, Africa (AFRO), Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean (EURO/EMRO), and the Americas (AMRO), respectively. Of 85.3 million pregnancies in areas with P. falciparum transmission, 54.7 million occurred in areas with stable transmission and 30.6 million in areas with unstable transmission (clinical incidence <1 per 10,000 population/year); 92.9 million occurred in areas with P. vivax transmission, 53.0 million of which occurred in areas in which P. falciparum and P. vivax co-exist and 39.9 million in temperate regions with P. vivax transmission only.

Conclusions: in 2007, 54.7 million pregnancies occurred in areas with stable P. falciparum malaria and a further 70.5 million in areas with exceptionally low malaria transmission or with P. vivax only. These represent the first contemporary estimates of the global distribution of the number of pregnancies at risk of P. falciparum and P. vivax malaria and provide a first step towards a more informed estimate of the geographical distribution of infection rates and the corresponding disease burden of malaria in pregnancy

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Citation

Dellicour, Stephanie, Tatem, Andrew J., Guerra, Carlos A., Snow, Robert W. and ter Kuile, Feiko O. (2010) Quantifying the number of pregnancies at risk of malaria in 2007: a demographic study PLoS Medicine, 7, (1), e1000221-[10pp]. (doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000221). (PMID:20126256).

More information

Published date: 2010
Keywords: abortion, induced statistics & numerical data abortion, spontaneous epidemiology female, humans, incidence malaria complications epidemiology transmission, plasmodium falciparum, plasmodium vivax, pregnancy, pregnancy complications, parasitic, pregnancy outcome
Organisations: Geography & Environment, PHEW – P (Population Health)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 344411
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/344411
ISSN: 1549-1277
PURE UUID: 76685b9e-f49b-4af5-94bd-78931b34cc24
ORCID for Andrew J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 07 Nov 2012 08:47
Last modified: 18 Jul 2017 05:16

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Contributors

Author: Stephanie Dellicour
Author: Andrew J. Tatem ORCID iD
Author: Carlos A. Guerra
Author: Robert W. Snow
Author: Feiko O. ter Kuile

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