The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Spatial phylodynamics of HIV-1 epidemic emergence in east Africa

Gray, R.R., Tatem, A.J., Lamers, S., Hou, W., Laeyendecker, O., Serwadda, D., Sewankambo, N., Gray, R.H., Wawer, M., Quinn, T.C., Goodenow, M.M. and Salemi, M. (2009) Spatial phylodynamics of HIV-1 epidemic emergence in east Africa AIDS, 23, (14), F9-F17. (PMID:19644346).

Record type: Article

Abstract

DESIGN: We sought to investigate the evolutionary and historical reasons for the different epidemiological patterns of HIV-1 in the early epidemic. In order to characterize the demographic history of HIV-1 subtypes A and D in east Africa, we examined molecular epidemiology, geographical and historical data.

METHODOLOGY: We employed high-resolution phylodynamics to investigate the introduction of HIV-1A and D into east Africa, the geographic trends of viral spread, and the demographic growth of each subtype. We also used geographic information system data to investigate human migration trends, population growth, and human mobility. RESULTS: HIV-1A and D were introduced into east Africa after 1950 and spread exponentially during the 1970s, concurrent with eastward expansion. Spatiotemporal data failed to explain the establishment and spread of HIV based on urban population growth and migration. The low prevalence of the virus in the Democratic Republic of Congo before and after the emergence of the pandemic was, however, consistent with regional accessibility data, highlighting the difficulty in travel between major population centers in central Africa. In contrast, the strong interconnectivity between population centers across the east African region since colonial times has likely fostered the rapid growth of the epidemic in this locale.

CONCLUSION: This study illustrates how phylodynamic analysis of pathogens informed by geospatial data can provide a more holistic and evidence-based interpretation of past epidemics. We advocate that this 'landscape phylodynamics' approach has the potential to provide a framework both to understand epidemics' spread and to design optimal intervention strategies.

Full text not available from this repository.

More information

Published date: September 2009
Keywords: africa, eastern, epidemiology, bayes theoremdisease outbreaks, emigration and immigration, statistics & numerical data trends, evolution, moleculargeographic information systems, HIV infections, virologyHIV-1, classification, genetics, humans phylogeny, population growth
Organisations: Geography & Environment, PHEW – P (Population Health)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 344417
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/344417
PURE UUID: 10a3348f-b4f3-4834-9333-74666c8d5f9a
ORCID for A.J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 05 Nov 2012 16:15
Last modified: 04 Oct 2017 02:48

Export record

Contributors

Author: R.R. Gray
Author: A.J. Tatem ORCID iD
Author: S. Lamers
Author: W. Hou
Author: O. Laeyendecker
Author: D. Serwadda
Author: N. Sewankambo
Author: R.H. Gray
Author: M. Wawer
Author: T.C. Quinn
Author: M.M. Goodenow
Author: M. Salemi

University divisions

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×