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A world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2007

Hay, S.I., Guerra, C.A., Gething, P.W., Patil, A.P., Tatem, A.J., Noor, A.M., Kabaria, C.W., Manh, B.H., Elyazar, I.R., Brooker, S., Smith, D.L., Moyeed, R. A. and Snow, R.W. (2009) A world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2007 PLoS Medicine, 6, (3), e1000048-[17pp]. (doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000048). (PMID:19323591).

Record type: Article

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Efficient allocation of resources to intervene against malaria requires a detailed understanding of the contemporary spatial distribution of malaria risk. It is exactly 40 y since the last global map of malaria endemicity was published. This paper describes the generation of a new world map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity for the year 2007.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: A total of 8,938 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys were identified using a variety of exhaustive search strategies. Of these, 7,953 passed strict data fidelity tests for inclusion into a global database of PfPR data, age-standardized to 2-10 y for endemicity mapping. A model-based geostatistical procedure was used to create a continuous surface of malaria endemicity within previously defined stable spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission. These procedures were implemented within a Bayesian statistical framework so that the uncertainty of these predictions could be evaluated robustly. The uncertainty was expressed as the probability of predicting correctly one of three endemicity classes; previously stratified to be an informative guide for malaria control. Population at risk estimates, adjusted for the transmission modifying effects of urbanization in Africa, were then derived with reference to human population surfaces in 2007. Of the 1.38 billion people at risk of stable P. falciparum malaria, 0.69 billion were found in Central and South East Asia (CSE Asia), 0.66 billion in Africa, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia (Africa+), and 0.04 billion in the Americas. All those exposed to stable risk in the Americas were in the lowest endemicity class (PfPR2-10 < or = 5%). The vast majority (88%) of those living under stable risk in CSE Asia were also in this low endemicity class; a small remainder (11%) were in the intermediate endemicity class (PfPR2-10 > 5 to < 40%); and the remaining fraction (1%) in high endemicity (PfPR2-10 > or = 40%) areas. High endemicity was widespread in the Africa+ region, where 0.35 billion people are at this level of risk. Most of the rest live at intermediate risk (0.20 billion), with a smaller number (0.11 billion) at low stable risk.

CONCLUSIONS: High levels of P. falciparum malaria endemicity are common in Africa. Uniformly low endemic levels are found in the Americas. Low endemicity is also widespread in CSE Asia, but pockets of intermediate and very rarely high transmission remain. There are therefore significant opportunities for malaria control in Africa and for malaria elimination elsewhere. This 2007 global P. falciparum malaria endemicity map is the first of a series with which it will be possible to monitor and evaluate the progress of this intervention process.

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Published date: 24 March 2009
Keywords: Africa, epidemiology, americas, animals, asia, climate databases, factual, endemic diseases, statistics and numerical data, health surveys humans, malaria, falciparum, parasitology maps as topicmodels, theoretical plasmodium falciparum isolation & purification, prevalence, risk, world health
Organisations: Geography & Environment, PHEW – P (Population Health)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 344421
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/344421
ISSN: 1549-1277
PURE UUID: 1016ef16-d16e-4e87-b9ff-9a2573abadc1
ORCID for A.J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

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Date deposited: 05 Nov 2012 15:01
Last modified: 18 Jul 2017 05:16

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Contributors

Author: S.I. Hay
Author: C.A. Guerra
Author: P.W. Gething
Author: A.P. Patil
Author: A.J. Tatem ORCID iD
Author: A.M. Noor
Author: C.W. Kabaria
Author: B.H. Manh
Author: I.R. Elyazar
Author: S. Brooker
Author: D.L. Smith
Author: R. A. Moyeed
Author: R.W. Snow

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