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Prediction of bluetongue vector distribution in Europe and north Africa using satellite imagery

Prediction of bluetongue vector distribution in Europe and north Africa using satellite imagery
Prediction of bluetongue vector distribution in Europe and north Africa using satellite imagery
Bluetongue is an infectious, non-contagious arboviral disease thought to infect all known ruminant species. Since 1998, an unprecedented epizootic of the disease has occurred in the Mediterranean region, resulting in the deaths of over 800,000 sheep to date. Bluetongue virus (BTV) is transmitted by biting midges of which one species, Culicoides imicola, is the major vector in the old world. C. imicola was trapped for 2 years at 87 sites across Portugal and models were developed for predicting the presence and abundance of the midge at these sites. Discriminant analysis was used to identify the best models from 40 temporally Fourier-processed 1 km spatial resolution remotely-sensed variables. The best models correctly predicted presence and absence at 83 of the 87 sites, and abundance at 76 sites. The models were then used to predict C. imicola presence and abundance elsewhere across Europe and north Africa. C. imicola was predicted to be present and in high abundance at the majority of areas affected in the recent bluetongue epizootic, including the Balearics, Sardinia, Corsica, Sicily, areas of mainland Italy, large areas of Greece, western Turkey and northern Algeria and Tunisia
bluetongue, environmental remote sensing, discriminant analysis, fourier processing, disease modelling, prediction maps
0378-1135
13-29
Tatem, A. J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Baylis, M.
cd756372-a60c-4548-9a70-f51d1076ffd7
Mellor, P.S.
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Purse, B.V.
fb7f7422-5ed3-4caf-9c66-b7196c19260d
Capela, R.
3862439c-4034-4a2d-8799-a1a9b919d6e0
Pena, I.
0aa91cca-528b-468c-84ba-791e6ae84847
Rogers, D.J.
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Tatem, A. J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Baylis, M.
cd756372-a60c-4548-9a70-f51d1076ffd7
Mellor, P.S.
4e94c6a7-cf3b-4992-93d0-fbfedb397f9d
Purse, B.V.
fb7f7422-5ed3-4caf-9c66-b7196c19260d
Capela, R.
3862439c-4034-4a2d-8799-a1a9b919d6e0
Pena, I.
0aa91cca-528b-468c-84ba-791e6ae84847
Rogers, D.J.
90d6a7d6-f68c-4056-8ac9-3f52ced25f30

Tatem, A. J., Baylis, M., Mellor, P.S., Purse, B.V., Capela, R., Pena, I. and Rogers, D.J. (2003) Prediction of bluetongue vector distribution in Europe and north Africa using satellite imagery. Veterinary Microbiology, 97 (1-2), 13-29. (doi:10.1016/j.vetmic.2003.08.009). (PMID:14637035)

Record type: Article

Abstract

Bluetongue is an infectious, non-contagious arboviral disease thought to infect all known ruminant species. Since 1998, an unprecedented epizootic of the disease has occurred in the Mediterranean region, resulting in the deaths of over 800,000 sheep to date. Bluetongue virus (BTV) is transmitted by biting midges of which one species, Culicoides imicola, is the major vector in the old world. C. imicola was trapped for 2 years at 87 sites across Portugal and models were developed for predicting the presence and abundance of the midge at these sites. Discriminant analysis was used to identify the best models from 40 temporally Fourier-processed 1 km spatial resolution remotely-sensed variables. The best models correctly predicted presence and absence at 83 of the 87 sites, and abundance at 76 sites. The models were then used to predict C. imicola presence and abundance elsewhere across Europe and north Africa. C. imicola was predicted to be present and in high abundance at the majority of areas affected in the recent bluetongue epizootic, including the Balearics, Sardinia, Corsica, Sicily, areas of mainland Italy, large areas of Greece, western Turkey and northern Algeria and Tunisia

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More information

Published date: December 2003
Keywords: bluetongue, environmental remote sensing, discriminant analysis, fourier processing, disease modelling, prediction maps
Organisations: Geography & Environment, PHEW – P (Population Health)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 344457
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/344457
ISSN: 0378-1135
PURE UUID: 14a6c066-bc86-4812-ba81-b6e4971a0e4c
ORCID for A. J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 29 Nov 2012 10:33
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:43

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Contributors

Author: A. J. Tatem ORCID iD
Author: M. Baylis
Author: P.S. Mellor
Author: B.V. Purse
Author: R. Capela
Author: I. Pena
Author: D.J. Rogers

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