Spatial accessibility and the spread of HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants
Spatial accessibility and the spread of HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants
OBJECTIVE/DESIGN: The global spread of HIV-1 group M has resulted in differential distributions of subtypes and recombinants, with the greatest diversity being found in sub-Saharan Africa. The explanations for the current subtype distribution patterns are likely multifactorial, but the promotion of human migrations and movements through transportation link availability and quality, summarised through 'accessibility', have been consistently cited as strong drivers. We sought to address the question of whether accessibility has been a significant factor in HIV-1 spread across mainland Africa through spatial analyses of molecular epidemiology, transport network and land cover data.
METHODS: The distribution of HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1998-2008 was mapped using molecular epidemiology data at a finer level of detail than ever before. Moreover, hypotheses on the role of distance, road network structure and accessibility in explaining the patterns seen were tested using spatial datasets representing African transport infrastructure, land cover and an accessibility model of landscape travel speed.
RESULTS: Coherent spatial patterns in HIV-1 subtype distributions across the continent exist, and a substantial proportion of the variance in the distribution and diversity patterns seen can be explained by variations in regional spatial accessibility.
CONCLUSIONS: The study confirms quantitatively the influence of transport infrastructure on HIV-1 spread within Africa, presents an approach for examining potential future impacts of road development projects and more generally, highlights the importance of accessibility in the spread of communicable diseases.
2351-2360
Tatem, A.J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Hemelaar, J.
4fe52c01-8ac2-441d-8f69-4c773feeca8d
Gray, R.R.
0865cf96-c9d9-4a13-b6ab-330e5b0b0185
Salemi, M.
c7822d3e-11d0-4184-835a-68f3b7945afc
28 November 2012
Tatem, A.J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Hemelaar, J.
4fe52c01-8ac2-441d-8f69-4c773feeca8d
Gray, R.R.
0865cf96-c9d9-4a13-b6ab-330e5b0b0185
Salemi, M.
c7822d3e-11d0-4184-835a-68f3b7945afc
Abstract
OBJECTIVE/DESIGN: The global spread of HIV-1 group M has resulted in differential distributions of subtypes and recombinants, with the greatest diversity being found in sub-Saharan Africa. The explanations for the current subtype distribution patterns are likely multifactorial, but the promotion of human migrations and movements through transportation link availability and quality, summarised through 'accessibility', have been consistently cited as strong drivers. We sought to address the question of whether accessibility has been a significant factor in HIV-1 spread across mainland Africa through spatial analyses of molecular epidemiology, transport network and land cover data.
METHODS: The distribution of HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1998-2008 was mapped using molecular epidemiology data at a finer level of detail than ever before. Moreover, hypotheses on the role of distance, road network structure and accessibility in explaining the patterns seen were tested using spatial datasets representing African transport infrastructure, land cover and an accessibility model of landscape travel speed.
RESULTS: Coherent spatial patterns in HIV-1 subtype distributions across the continent exist, and a substantial proportion of the variance in the distribution and diversity patterns seen can be explained by variations in regional spatial accessibility.
CONCLUSIONS: The study confirms quantitatively the influence of transport infrastructure on HIV-1 spread within Africa, presents an approach for examining potential future impacts of road development projects and more generally, highlights the importance of accessibility in the spread of communicable diseases.
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Published date: 28 November 2012
Organisations:
Geography & Environment, PHEW – P (Population Health)
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 344467
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/344467
PURE UUID: 7828aa88-49a8-4f7c-9cb6-ab548f4cef84
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Date deposited: 29 Oct 2012 11:58
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:43
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Author:
J. Hemelaar
Author:
R.R. Gray
Author:
M. Salemi
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