An aggregate data analysis of turnout and party voting in local elections

Davies, Paul and Newton, Kenneth (1974) An aggregate data analysis of turnout and party voting in local elections. Sociology, 8 (2), 213-231. (doi:10.1177/003803857400800202).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Much has been written about individual voting behaviour in Britain and the United States but relatively little work has been done with aggregate data in the study of total electoral situations. A partial correlation and multiple regression analysis of local elections in a large English city shows that class, housing tenure, age, and coloured immigrants are closely related to voting patterns of total electorates, but geographical mobility and density of hoeing occupation are not. The political variables of marginality, size of majority, and number of candidates are not noticeably related to either turnout or party voting, although the presence of a Liberal candidate does increase turnout in some circumstances. Housing tenure has a particularly strong and complex relationship with voting patterns which suggests that the concept of housing class may be useful in the analysis of voting as well as more general social patterns. There is no persistent pattern of support for the Liberals who gain or lose votes according to the popularity of the two main parties.

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