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On the Use of Emulators with Extreme and Highly Nonlinear Geophysical Simulators

On the Use of Emulators with Extreme and Highly Nonlinear Geophysical Simulators
On the Use of Emulators with Extreme and Highly Nonlinear Geophysical Simulators
Gaussian process emulators are a powerful tool for understanding complex geophysical simulators, including oceanic and atmospheric general circulation models. Concern has been raised about their ability to emulate complex nonlinear systems. For the first time, using the simple Stommel model, the way in which emulators can reasonably represent the full sampling space of an extreme nonlinear, bimodal system is illustrated. This simple example also shows how an emulator can help to elucidate interactions between parameters. The ideas are further illustrated with a second, more realistic, intermediate complex climate simulator. The paper describes what is meant by an emulator, the methodology of emulators, how emulators can be assessed, and why they are useful. It is shown how simple emulators can be useful to explore the parameter space (initial conditions, process parameters, and boundary conditions) of complex computer simulators, such as ocean and climate general circulation models, even when simulator outcomes contain steps in the response.
Bayesian methods, Numerical analysis/modeling, Statistical techniques, Model errors, Model evaluation/performance, Model output statistics
0739-0572
1704-1715
Tokmakian, Robin
224453de-bbaf-4130-a4ab-2e819cf5d074
Challenor, Peter
a7e71e56-8391-442c-b140-6e4b90c33547
Andrianakis, Yiannis
3fc4add9-c165-48b1-863f-749a78290c0b
Tokmakian, Robin
224453de-bbaf-4130-a4ab-2e819cf5d074
Challenor, Peter
a7e71e56-8391-442c-b140-6e4b90c33547
Andrianakis, Yiannis
3fc4add9-c165-48b1-863f-749a78290c0b

Tokmakian, Robin, Challenor, Peter and Andrianakis, Yiannis (2012) On the Use of Emulators with Extreme and Highly Nonlinear Geophysical Simulators. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 29 (11), 1704-1715. (doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-11-00110.1).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Gaussian process emulators are a powerful tool for understanding complex geophysical simulators, including oceanic and atmospheric general circulation models. Concern has been raised about their ability to emulate complex nonlinear systems. For the first time, using the simple Stommel model, the way in which emulators can reasonably represent the full sampling space of an extreme nonlinear, bimodal system is illustrated. This simple example also shows how an emulator can help to elucidate interactions between parameters. The ideas are further illustrated with a second, more realistic, intermediate complex climate simulator. The paper describes what is meant by an emulator, the methodology of emulators, how emulators can be assessed, and why they are useful. It is shown how simple emulators can be useful to explore the parameter space (initial conditions, process parameters, and boundary conditions) of complex computer simulators, such as ocean and climate general circulation models, even when simulator outcomes contain steps in the response.

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More information

Published date: 2012
Keywords: Bayesian methods, Numerical analysis/modeling, Statistical techniques, Model errors, Model evaluation/performance, Model output statistics
Organisations: Marine Systems Modelling

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 345841
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/345841
ISSN: 0739-0572
PURE UUID: 72b72c94-94c1-4280-87c6-90a40ac892e6

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 03 Dec 2012 15:08
Last modified: 18 Jul 2017 05:07

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