The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository
Warning ePrints Soton is experiencing an issue with some file downloads not being available. We are working hard to fix this. Please bear with us.

Multi-decadal variability and trends in the temperature of the northwest European continental shelf: A model-data synthesis

Multi-decadal variability and trends in the temperature of the northwest European continental shelf: A model-data synthesis
Multi-decadal variability and trends in the temperature of the northwest European continental shelf: A model-data synthesis
We examine the trends and variability in temperature of the northwest European shelf seas over the period 1960–2004 using four approaches: a regional model simulation (using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System; POLCOMS), in situ multi-annual timeseries observations, satellite remote sensed (AVHRR) sea surface temperature (SST), and an analysis of data held in an international database at the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). We focus on variability for the full period and trends from 1985 to 2004, being limited by the length of model simulation and the availability of satellite data. We find that all data sources give a consistent picture, with both trends and variability being intensified on-shelf and north of ?48°N. The model and AVHRR SST show statistically significant warming trends in large areas of this region that are clearly distinguishable from both model/observation error and natural variability on these timescales. This ‘signal to noise ratio’ is substantially reduced when near bottom temperatures are considered in the model. The long timeseries at Port Erin (Isle of Man) shows that the variation in trend is well represented by the model and that the warming trend in the period 1985–2004 is substantially larger and of longer duration than previous peaks in 20-year trends since 1914.

We find that the SST trends are greater in the model and satellite observations than the air temperature trends in the ERA40 re-analysis used for forcing; the net sea to air heat flux is ?20% less in 1985–2004 than 1960–1984 (including shortwave, longwave, sensible and latent components). This is partly compensated by a ?9% reduction in advective warming. The model shows the trends in seasonally stratified regions are greater at the surface than at depth, indicating an increase in this stratification. While this pattern is also seen in the annual trends from the ICES data analysis, the lack of seasonal resolution hampers a quantitative corroboration.

The model is seen to have good skill in reproducing both the trends and variability, but tends to underestimate the trends. The modelled variability is overestimated in some coastal and open ocean regions and underestimated elsewhere, while the phase of this variability is generally well represented. Generally the model performance is better on-shelf than in the open ocean.
0079-6611
96-117
Holt, Jason
6e0276a6-1a9b-4514-bc5f-9d04571b7687
Hughes, Sarah
bad9c2ae-9636-408a-93dd-3e445ffdfdd2
Hopkins, Joanne
e9814234-cbed-40f9-8e95-812d4b6ffd6a
Wakelin, Sarah L.
dab7f0ea-4a19-403f-8731-4c328ed7f927
Holliday, N. Penny
358b0b33-f30b-44fd-a193-88365bbf2c79
Dye, Stephen
060292da-9b27-496b-b308-d1e8f25e1823
González-Pola, César
36ca5cc3-ebb8-40e7-8079-2cf2912b7773
Hjøllo, Solfrid Sætre
5d3f9508-f33c-4461-8faf-8f98229756a8
Mork, Kjell Arne
6926d6e5-9fd1-437f-9e53-f769fd61c04a
Nolan, Glen
c394d78e-6153-428d-8f8f-7947816cc488
Proctor, Roger
4de9bb96-6e06-48c0-b970-3ba22b1542b7
Read, Jane
913784a2-30c1-4aa7-aa60-63824998e845
Shammon, Theresa
31bcea08-4de3-4bef-95ca-72736fc90baf
Sherwin, Toby
448c2bf6-bbb4-474f-9331-c94541919658
Smyth, Tim
391b980f-9798-44a8-a0ef-73a730e777c0
Tattersall, Graham
7a1ddb04-aaf4-4c5a-a1bd-7e5ef2d2dbac
Ward, Ben
9063af30-e344-4626-9470-8db7c1543d05
Wiltshire, Karen Helen
c77f51aa-7d94-4230-8b0c-acdb30fb2821
Holt, Jason
6e0276a6-1a9b-4514-bc5f-9d04571b7687
Hughes, Sarah
bad9c2ae-9636-408a-93dd-3e445ffdfdd2
Hopkins, Joanne
e9814234-cbed-40f9-8e95-812d4b6ffd6a
Wakelin, Sarah L.
dab7f0ea-4a19-403f-8731-4c328ed7f927
Holliday, N. Penny
358b0b33-f30b-44fd-a193-88365bbf2c79
Dye, Stephen
060292da-9b27-496b-b308-d1e8f25e1823
González-Pola, César
36ca5cc3-ebb8-40e7-8079-2cf2912b7773
Hjøllo, Solfrid Sætre
5d3f9508-f33c-4461-8faf-8f98229756a8
Mork, Kjell Arne
6926d6e5-9fd1-437f-9e53-f769fd61c04a
Nolan, Glen
c394d78e-6153-428d-8f8f-7947816cc488
Proctor, Roger
4de9bb96-6e06-48c0-b970-3ba22b1542b7
Read, Jane
913784a2-30c1-4aa7-aa60-63824998e845
Shammon, Theresa
31bcea08-4de3-4bef-95ca-72736fc90baf
Sherwin, Toby
448c2bf6-bbb4-474f-9331-c94541919658
Smyth, Tim
391b980f-9798-44a8-a0ef-73a730e777c0
Tattersall, Graham
7a1ddb04-aaf4-4c5a-a1bd-7e5ef2d2dbac
Ward, Ben
9063af30-e344-4626-9470-8db7c1543d05
Wiltshire, Karen Helen
c77f51aa-7d94-4230-8b0c-acdb30fb2821

Holt, Jason, Hughes, Sarah, Hopkins, Joanne, Wakelin, Sarah L., Holliday, N. Penny, Dye, Stephen, González-Pola, César, Hjøllo, Solfrid Sætre, Mork, Kjell Arne, Nolan, Glen, Proctor, Roger, Read, Jane, Shammon, Theresa, Sherwin, Toby, Smyth, Tim, Tattersall, Graham, Ward, Ben and Wiltshire, Karen Helen (2012) Multi-decadal variability and trends in the temperature of the northwest European continental shelf: A model-data synthesis. Progress in Oceanography, 106, 96-117. (doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2012.08.001).

Record type: Article

Abstract

We examine the trends and variability in temperature of the northwest European shelf seas over the period 1960–2004 using four approaches: a regional model simulation (using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System; POLCOMS), in situ multi-annual timeseries observations, satellite remote sensed (AVHRR) sea surface temperature (SST), and an analysis of data held in an international database at the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). We focus on variability for the full period and trends from 1985 to 2004, being limited by the length of model simulation and the availability of satellite data. We find that all data sources give a consistent picture, with both trends and variability being intensified on-shelf and north of ?48°N. The model and AVHRR SST show statistically significant warming trends in large areas of this region that are clearly distinguishable from both model/observation error and natural variability on these timescales. This ‘signal to noise ratio’ is substantially reduced when near bottom temperatures are considered in the model. The long timeseries at Port Erin (Isle of Man) shows that the variation in trend is well represented by the model and that the warming trend in the period 1985–2004 is substantially larger and of longer duration than previous peaks in 20-year trends since 1914.

We find that the SST trends are greater in the model and satellite observations than the air temperature trends in the ERA40 re-analysis used for forcing; the net sea to air heat flux is ?20% less in 1985–2004 than 1960–1984 (including shortwave, longwave, sensible and latent components). This is partly compensated by a ?9% reduction in advective warming. The model shows the trends in seasonally stratified regions are greater at the surface than at depth, indicating an increase in this stratification. While this pattern is also seen in the annual trends from the ICES data analysis, the lack of seasonal resolution hampers a quantitative corroboration.

The model is seen to have good skill in reproducing both the trends and variability, but tends to underestimate the trends. The modelled variability is overestimated in some coastal and open ocean regions and underestimated elsewhere, while the phase of this variability is generally well represented. Generally the model performance is better on-shelf than in the open ocean.

This record has no associated files available for download.

More information

Published date: November 2012
Organisations: Marine Physics and Ocean Climate

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 345922
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/345922
ISSN: 0079-6611
PURE UUID: bfb40179-6bbf-46d5-91b5-1d1542b790b6

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 05 Dec 2012 14:02
Last modified: 08 Jan 2022 00:13

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: Jason Holt
Author: Sarah Hughes
Author: Joanne Hopkins
Author: Sarah L. Wakelin
Author: N. Penny Holliday
Author: Stephen Dye
Author: César González-Pola
Author: Solfrid Sætre Hjøllo
Author: Kjell Arne Mork
Author: Glen Nolan
Author: Roger Proctor
Author: Jane Read
Author: Theresa Shammon
Author: Toby Sherwin
Author: Tim Smyth
Author: Graham Tattersall
Author: Ben Ward
Author: Karen Helen Wiltshire

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×