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Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity
Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity
Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K?W?1?m2) of 0.3–1.9 or 0.6–1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2–4.8?K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.
climate science, earth sciences
0028-0836
683-691
Rohling, E.J.
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Sluijs, A.
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Dijkstra, H.A.
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Köhler, P.
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van de Wal, R.S.W.
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von der Heydt, A.S.
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Beerling, D.J.
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Berger, A.
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Bijl, P.K.
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Crucifix, M.
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DeConto, R.
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Drijfhout, S.S.
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Fedorov, A.
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Foster, G.L.
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Ganopolski, A.
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Hansen, J.
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Hönisch, B.
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Hooghiemstra, H.
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Huber, M.
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Huybers, P.
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Knutti, R.
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Lea, D.W.
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Lourens, L.J.
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Lunt, D.
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Masson-Demotte, V.
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Medina-Elizalde, M.
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Otto-Bliesner, B.
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Pagani, M.
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Pälike, H.
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Renssen, H.
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Royer, D.L.
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Siddall, M.
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Valdes, P.
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Zachos, J.C.
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Zeebe, R.E.
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Rohling, E.J.
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Sluijs, A.
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Dijkstra, H.A.
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Köhler, P.
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van de Wal, R.S.W.
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von der Heydt, A.S.
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Beerling, D.J.
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Berger, A.
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Bijl, P.K.
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Crucifix, M.
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DeConto, R.
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Drijfhout, S.S.
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Fedorov, A.
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Foster, G.L.
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Ganopolski, A.
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Hansen, J.
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Hönisch, B.
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Hooghiemstra, H.
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Huber, M.
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Huybers, P.
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Knutti, R.
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Lea, D.W.
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Lourens, L.J.
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Lunt, D.
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Masson-Demotte, V.
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Medina-Elizalde, M.
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Otto-Bliesner, B.
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Pagani, M.
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Pälike, H.
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Renssen, H.
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Royer, D.L.
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Siddall, M.
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Valdes, P.
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Zachos, J.C.
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Zeebe, R.E.
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Rohling, E.J., Sluijs, A., Dijkstra, H.A., Köhler, P., van de Wal, R.S.W., von der Heydt, A.S., Beerling, D.J., Berger, A., Bijl, P.K., Crucifix, M., DeConto, R., Drijfhout, S.S., Fedorov, A., Foster, G.L., Ganopolski, A., Hansen, J., Hönisch, B., Hooghiemstra, H., Huber, M., Huybers, P., Knutti, R., Lea, D.W., Lourens, L.J., Lunt, D., Masson-Demotte, V., Medina-Elizalde, M., Otto-Bliesner, B., Pagani, M., Pälike, H., Renssen, H., Royer, D.L., Siddall, M., Valdes, P., Zachos, J.C. and Zeebe, R.E. (2012) Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. Nature, 491 (7426), 683-691. (doi:10.1038/nature11574).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K?W?1?m2) of 0.3–1.9 or 0.6–1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2–4.8?K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.

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More information

e-pub ahead of print date: 28 November 2012
Published date: 29 November 2012
Keywords: climate science, earth sciences
Organisations: Geochemistry, Paleooceanography & Palaeoclimate

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 346721
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/346721
ISSN: 0028-0836
PURE UUID: 78a0d469-7c2b-41e8-b45a-398070cdd802
ORCID for E.J. Rohling: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-5349-2158

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 08 Jan 2013 10:21
Last modified: 06 Jun 2018 13:06

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Contributors

Author: E.J. Rohling ORCID iD
Author: A. Sluijs
Author: H.A. Dijkstra
Author: P. Köhler
Author: R.S.W. van de Wal
Author: A.S. von der Heydt
Author: D.J. Beerling
Author: A. Berger
Author: P.K. Bijl
Author: M. Crucifix
Author: R. DeConto
Author: S.S. Drijfhout
Author: A. Fedorov
Author: G.L. Foster
Author: A. Ganopolski
Author: J. Hansen
Author: B. Hönisch
Author: H. Hooghiemstra
Author: M. Huber
Author: P. Huybers
Author: R. Knutti
Author: D.W. Lea
Author: L.J. Lourens
Author: D. Lunt
Author: V. Masson-Demotte
Author: M. Medina-Elizalde
Author: B. Otto-Bliesner
Author: M. Pagani
Author: H. Pälike
Author: H. Renssen
Author: D.L. Royer
Author: M. Siddall
Author: P. Valdes
Author: J.C. Zachos
Author: R.E. Zeebe

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