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A Web-based tool for personalized prediction of long-term disease course in patients with multiple sclerosis

A Web-based tool for personalized prediction of long-term disease course in patients with multiple sclerosis
A Web-based tool for personalized prediction of long-term disease course in patients with multiple sclerosis
Background and Purpose:
The Evidence-Based Decision Support Tool in Multiple Sclerosis (EBDiMS) is the first Web-based prognostic calculator in multiple sclerosis (MS) capable of delivering individualized estimates of disease progression. It has recently been extended to provide long-term predictions based on the data from a large natural history cohort.

Methods:
We compared the predictive accuracy and consistency of EBDiMS with that of 17 neurologists highly specialized in MS.

Results:
We show that whilst the predictive accuracy was similar, neurologists showed a significant intra-rater and inter-rater variability.

Conclusions:
Because EBDiMS was consistent, it is of superior utility in a specialist setting. Further field testing of EBDiMS in non-specialist settings, and investigation of its usefulness for counselling patients in treatment decisions, is warranted.
1351-5101
Galea, Ian
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Lederer, Christian
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Neuhaus, Anneke
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Muraro, Paolo A.
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Scalfari, Antonia
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Koch-Henriksen, Nils
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Heesen, Christoph
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Koepke, Sasha
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Stellmann, Jan-Patrick
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Albrecht, Holger
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Winkelmann, Alexander
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Weber, Frank
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Bahn, Erik
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Hauser, Markus
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Edan, Gilles
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Ebers, George
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Daumer, Martin
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Galea, Ian
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Lederer, Christian
d5e7e6f9-bc7c-4bd1-b1c7-609e17771d2e
Neuhaus, Anneke
8bbe5c72-7894-4c84-8700-8b6644142f58
Muraro, Paolo A.
84da35c7-bc6c-449c-bdec-7f2b77c478f4
Scalfari, Antonia
d6786674-3b56-4573-9155-16b2dfb8366f
Koch-Henriksen, Nils
0ebeb618-f132-4433-baaa-e0dfd6184e89
Heesen, Christoph
1f483c47-8edd-4655-aec3-db243d891310
Koepke, Sasha
531ec307-c3ca-4be1-9a0c-db1acdaca28c
Stellmann, Jan-Patrick
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Albrecht, Holger
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Winkelmann, Alexander
a21eeecd-873b-4817-9640-50668d6c6ab0
Weber, Frank
75b9add5-c603-457a-b62a-f6ac24637834
Bahn, Erik
34e4096f-9429-402a-8143-8bb80dfcf0f2
Hauser, Markus
e1be71af-c30e-41d1-ba24-68b91e653e75
Edan, Gilles
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Ebers, George
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Daumer, Martin
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Galea, Ian, Lederer, Christian, Neuhaus, Anneke, Muraro, Paolo A., Scalfari, Antonia, Koch-Henriksen, Nils, Heesen, Christoph, Koepke, Sasha, Stellmann, Jan-Patrick, Albrecht, Holger, Winkelmann, Alexander, Weber, Frank, Bahn, Erik, Hauser, Markus, Edan, Gilles, Ebers, George and Daumer, Martin (2013) A Web-based tool for personalized prediction of long-term disease course in patients with multiple sclerosis. European Journal of Neurology. (doi:10.1111/ene.12016). (PMID:23379849)

Record type: Article

Abstract

Background and Purpose:
The Evidence-Based Decision Support Tool in Multiple Sclerosis (EBDiMS) is the first Web-based prognostic calculator in multiple sclerosis (MS) capable of delivering individualized estimates of disease progression. It has recently been extended to provide long-term predictions based on the data from a large natural history cohort.

Methods:
We compared the predictive accuracy and consistency of EBDiMS with that of 17 neurologists highly specialized in MS.

Results:
We show that whilst the predictive accuracy was similar, neurologists showed a significant intra-rater and inter-rater variability.

Conclusions:
Because EBDiMS was consistent, it is of superior utility in a specialist setting. Further field testing of EBDiMS in non-specialist settings, and investigation of its usefulness for counselling patients in treatment decisions, is warranted.

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Galea et al 2013 - Version of Record
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Published date: 16 July 2013
Organisations: Clinical & Experimental Sciences

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 348228
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/348228
ISSN: 1351-5101
PURE UUID: 6b36b3fc-e0a6-41b2-9502-28404672696e
ORCID for Ian Galea: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-1268-5102

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Date deposited: 11 Feb 2013 09:36
Last modified: 12 Nov 2019 01:49

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Contributors

Author: Ian Galea ORCID iD
Author: Christian Lederer
Author: Anneke Neuhaus
Author: Paolo A. Muraro
Author: Antonia Scalfari
Author: Nils Koch-Henriksen
Author: Christoph Heesen
Author: Sasha Koepke
Author: Jan-Patrick Stellmann
Author: Holger Albrecht
Author: Alexander Winkelmann
Author: Frank Weber
Author: Erik Bahn
Author: Markus Hauser
Author: Gilles Edan
Author: George Ebers
Author: Martin Daumer

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