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A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010

A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010
A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010
Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross-Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross-Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross-Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.
20120921
Reiner, Robert C.
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Perkins, T. Alex
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Barker, Christopher M.
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Niu, Tianchan
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Chaves, Luis Fernando
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Ellis, Alicia M.
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George, Dylan B.
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Le Menach, Arnaud
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Pulliam, Juliet R. C.
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Bisanzio, Donal
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Buckee, Caroline
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Chiyaka, Christinah
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Cummings, Derek A.T.
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Garcia, Andres J.
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Gatton, Michelle L.
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Gething, Peter W.
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Hartley, David M.
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Johnston, Geoffrey
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Klein, Eili Y.
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Michael, Edwin
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Lindsay, Steven W.
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Lloyd, Alun L.
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Pigott, David M.
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Reisen, William K.
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Ruktanonchai, Nick
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Tatem, Andrew J.
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Kitron, Uriel
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Hay, Simon I.
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Smith, David L.
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Reiner, Robert C.
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Perkins, T. Alex
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Barker, Christopher M.
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Niu, Tianchan
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Chaves, Luis Fernando
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Ellis, Alicia M.
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Le Menach, Arnaud
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Pulliam, Juliet R. C.
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Garcia, Andres J.
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Gatton, Michelle L.
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Gething, Peter W.
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Hartley, David M.
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Johnston, Geoffrey
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Klein, Eili Y.
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Michael, Edwin
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Lindsay, Steven W.
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Lloyd, Alun L.
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Pigott, David M.
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Reisen, William K.
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Ruktanonchai, Nick
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Singh, Brajendra K.
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Tatem, Andrew J.
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Kitron, Uriel
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Hay, Simon I.
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Scott, Thomas W.
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Smith, David L.
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Reiner, Robert C., Perkins, T. Alex, Barker, Christopher M., Niu, Tianchan, Chaves, Luis Fernando, Ellis, Alicia M., George, Dylan B., Le Menach, Arnaud, Pulliam, Juliet R. C., Bisanzio, Donal, Buckee, Caroline, Chiyaka, Christinah, Cummings, Derek A.T., Garcia, Andres J., Gatton, Michelle L., Gething, Peter W., Hartley, David M., Johnston, Geoffrey, Klein, Eili Y., Michael, Edwin, Lindsay, Steven W., Lloyd, Alun L., Pigott, David M., Reisen, William K., Ruktanonchai, Nick, Singh, Brajendra K., Tatem, Andrew J., Kitron, Uriel, Hay, Simon I., Scott, Thomas W. and Smith, David L. (2013) A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 10 (81), 20120921. (doi:10.1098/?rsif.2012.0921). (PMID:23407571)

Record type: Article

Abstract

Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross-Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross-Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross-Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.

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More information

Published date: 2013
Organisations: WorldPop, Geography & Environment, PHEW – P (Population Health)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 349031
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/349031
PURE UUID: 2714ace8-1e77-448f-a2e9-187c6bb13648
ORCID for Andrew J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 22 Feb 2013 14:32
Last modified: 17 Sep 2019 00:43

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Contributors

Author: Robert C. Reiner
Author: T. Alex Perkins
Author: Christopher M. Barker
Author: Tianchan Niu
Author: Luis Fernando Chaves
Author: Alicia M. Ellis
Author: Dylan B. George
Author: Arnaud Le Menach
Author: Juliet R. C. Pulliam
Author: Donal Bisanzio
Author: Caroline Buckee
Author: Christinah Chiyaka
Author: Derek A.T. Cummings
Author: Andres J. Garcia
Author: Michelle L. Gatton
Author: Peter W. Gething
Author: David M. Hartley
Author: Geoffrey Johnston
Author: Eili Y. Klein
Author: Edwin Michael
Author: Steven W. Lindsay
Author: Alun L. Lloyd
Author: David M. Pigott
Author: William K. Reisen
Author: Nick Ruktanonchai
Author: Brajendra K. Singh
Author: Andrew J. Tatem ORCID iD
Author: Uriel Kitron
Author: Simon I. Hay
Author: Thomas W. Scott
Author: David L. Smith

University divisions

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