The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands

New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands
New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands
A new set of climate change scenarios for 2050 for the Netherlands was produced recently. The scenarios span a wide range of possible future climate conditions, and include climate variables that are of interest to a broad user community. The scenario values are constructed by combining output from an ensemble of recent General Climate Model (GCM) simulations, Regional Climate Model (RCM) output, meteorological observations and a touch of expert judgment. For temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and wind four scenarios are constructed, encompassing ranges of both global mean temperature rise in 2050 and the strength of the response of the dominant atmospheric circulation in the area of interest to global warming. For this particular area, wintertime precipitation is seen to increase between 3.5 and 7% per degree global warming, but mean summertime precipitation shows opposite signs depending on the assumed response of the circulation regime. Annual maximum daily mean wind speed shows small changes compared to the observed (natural) variability of this variable. Sea level rise in the North Sea in 2100 ranges between 35 and 85 cm. Preliminary assessment of the impact of the new scenarios on water management and coastal defence policies indicate that particularly dry summer scenarios and increased intensity of extreme daily precipitation deserves additional attention in the near future.
climate change, netherlands, scenarios
0273-1223
27-33
van den Hurk, B.
967386e0-6d51-4ad1-9c80-ef83dc62981d
Tank, A.K.
adbb90d1-58a7-4868-be08-e8cd8c3243ac
Lenderink, G.
65014c8d-930a-4846-813c-14616240b75d
van Ulden, A.
ab1ddb8e-a016-4b65-8928-8db49a0de750
van Oldenborgh, G.J.
bfed2684-7bc6-4711-b0a1-6953fd1090cb
Katsman, C.
acaca6eb-c0eb-4938-8775-107c45c0386e
van den Brink, H.
dfdcd9c5-69e4-4f6f-9e5b-f603d18d3295
Keller, F.
a6bd7ee0-2f6b-4f7a-b13e-62aa902164c5
Bessembinder, J.
7a1d44bc-2363-4574-b970-797dc1c831aa
Burgers, G.
6a1cfea3-dfbd-4cb7-92d7-fb3a15aa7b85
Komen, G.
9c7317b5-c1f0-4c71-9ed1-99485317dfa4
Hazeleger, W.
0bd826a1-4713-43ab-aace-3ea59d2fc37e
Drijfhout, S.
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13
van den Hurk, B.
967386e0-6d51-4ad1-9c80-ef83dc62981d
Tank, A.K.
adbb90d1-58a7-4868-be08-e8cd8c3243ac
Lenderink, G.
65014c8d-930a-4846-813c-14616240b75d
van Ulden, A.
ab1ddb8e-a016-4b65-8928-8db49a0de750
van Oldenborgh, G.J.
bfed2684-7bc6-4711-b0a1-6953fd1090cb
Katsman, C.
acaca6eb-c0eb-4938-8775-107c45c0386e
van den Brink, H.
dfdcd9c5-69e4-4f6f-9e5b-f603d18d3295
Keller, F.
a6bd7ee0-2f6b-4f7a-b13e-62aa902164c5
Bessembinder, J.
7a1d44bc-2363-4574-b970-797dc1c831aa
Burgers, G.
6a1cfea3-dfbd-4cb7-92d7-fb3a15aa7b85
Komen, G.
9c7317b5-c1f0-4c71-9ed1-99485317dfa4
Hazeleger, W.
0bd826a1-4713-43ab-aace-3ea59d2fc37e
Drijfhout, S.
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13

van den Hurk, B., Tank, A.K., Lenderink, G., van Ulden, A., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Katsman, C., van den Brink, H., Keller, F., Bessembinder, J., Burgers, G., Komen, G., Hazeleger, W. and Drijfhout, S. (2007) New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands. Water Science & Technology, 56 (4), 27-33. (doi:10.2166/wst.2007.533).

Record type: Article

Abstract

A new set of climate change scenarios for 2050 for the Netherlands was produced recently. The scenarios span a wide range of possible future climate conditions, and include climate variables that are of interest to a broad user community. The scenario values are constructed by combining output from an ensemble of recent General Climate Model (GCM) simulations, Regional Climate Model (RCM) output, meteorological observations and a touch of expert judgment. For temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and wind four scenarios are constructed, encompassing ranges of both global mean temperature rise in 2050 and the strength of the response of the dominant atmospheric circulation in the area of interest to global warming. For this particular area, wintertime precipitation is seen to increase between 3.5 and 7% per degree global warming, but mean summertime precipitation shows opposite signs depending on the assumed response of the circulation regime. Annual maximum daily mean wind speed shows small changes compared to the observed (natural) variability of this variable. Sea level rise in the North Sea in 2100 ranges between 35 and 85 cm. Preliminary assessment of the impact of the new scenarios on water management and coastal defence policies indicate that particularly dry summer scenarios and increased intensity of extreme daily precipitation deserves additional attention in the near future.

This record has no associated files available for download.

More information

Published date: 2007
Keywords: climate change, netherlands, scenarios
Organisations: Ocean and Earth Science

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 349148
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/349148
ISSN: 0273-1223
PURE UUID: 4c284b25-ad97-4a09-8d42-ad8cfdb2849d

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 26 Feb 2013 10:28
Last modified: 08 Jan 2022 17:57

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: B. van den Hurk
Author: A.K. Tank
Author: G. Lenderink
Author: A. van Ulden
Author: G.J. van Oldenborgh
Author: C. Katsman
Author: H. van den Brink
Author: F. Keller
Author: J. Bessembinder
Author: G. Burgers
Author: G. Komen
Author: W. Hazeleger
Author: S. Drijfhout

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×