The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Predicting the socio-technical future (and other myths)

Predicting the socio-technical future (and other myths)
Predicting the socio-technical future (and other myths)
A snooker ball model implies that simple, linear and predictable social change follows from the introduction of new technologies. Unfortunately technology does not have and has never had simple linear predictable social impacts. In this chapter we show that in most measurable ways, the pervasiveness of modern information and communication technologies has had little discernable 'impact' on most human behaviours of sociological significance. Historians of technology remind us that human society co-evolves with the technology it invents and that the eventual social and economic uses of a technology often turn out to be far removed from those originally envisioned. Rather than using the snooker ball model to attempt to predict future ICT usage and revenue models that are inevitably wrong, we suggest that truly participatory, grounded innovation, open systems and adaptive revenue models can lead us to a more effective, flexible and responsive innovation process.
social change, co-adaption, technological change, co-evolution
978-0-470-99770-3
3-16
Wiley
Anderson, B.
01e98bbd-b402-48b0-b83e-142341a39b2d
Stoneman, P.
182217fc-4a9e-4186-b280-0734871927ff
Warren, Paul
Davies, John
Brown, David
Anderson, B.
01e98bbd-b402-48b0-b83e-142341a39b2d
Stoneman, P.
182217fc-4a9e-4186-b280-0734871927ff
Warren, Paul
Davies, John
Brown, David

Anderson, B. and Stoneman, P. (2008) Predicting the socio-technical future (and other myths). In, Warren, Paul, Davies, John and Brown, David (eds.) ICT Futures: Delivering Pervasive, Real-time and Secure Services. Chichester, GB. Wiley, pp. 3-16. (doi:10.1002/9780470758656).

Record type: Book Section

Abstract

A snooker ball model implies that simple, linear and predictable social change follows from the introduction of new technologies. Unfortunately technology does not have and has never had simple linear predictable social impacts. In this chapter we show that in most measurable ways, the pervasiveness of modern information and communication technologies has had little discernable 'impact' on most human behaviours of sociological significance. Historians of technology remind us that human society co-evolves with the technology it invents and that the eventual social and economic uses of a technology often turn out to be far removed from those originally envisioned. Rather than using the snooker ball model to attempt to predict future ICT usage and revenue models that are inevitably wrong, we suggest that truly participatory, grounded innovation, open systems and adaptive revenue models can lead us to a more effective, flexible and responsive innovation process.

Full text not available from this repository.

More information

Published date: 11 April 2008
Keywords: social change, co-adaption, technological change, co-evolution
Organisations: Energy & Climate Change Group

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 350365
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/350365
ISBN: 978-0-470-99770-3
PURE UUID: 4f190d9c-d5a8-4c78-b07e-6d19dcff9eef
ORCID for B. Anderson: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-2092-4406

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 26 Mar 2013 11:34
Last modified: 06 Jun 2018 12:25

Export record

Altmetrics

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×