Predicting the socio-technical future (and other myths)
Predicting the socio-technical future (and other myths)
A snooker ball model implies that simple, linear and predictable social change follows from the introduction of new technologies. Unfortunately technology does not have and has never had simple linear predictable social impacts. In this chapter we show that in most measurable ways, the pervasiveness of modern information and communication technologies has had little discernable 'impact' on most human behaviours of sociological significance. Historians of technology remind us that human society co-evolves with the technology it invents and that the eventual social and economic uses of a technology often turn out to be far removed from those originally envisioned. Rather than using the snooker ball model to attempt to predict future ICT usage and revenue models that are inevitably wrong, we suggest that truly participatory, grounded innovation, open systems and adaptive revenue models can lead us to a more effective, flexible and responsive innovation process.
social change, co-adaption, technological change, co-evolution
978-0-470-99770-3
3-16
Anderson, B.
01e98bbd-b402-48b0-b83e-142341a39b2d
Stoneman, P.
182217fc-4a9e-4186-b280-0734871927ff
11 April 2008
Anderson, B.
01e98bbd-b402-48b0-b83e-142341a39b2d
Stoneman, P.
182217fc-4a9e-4186-b280-0734871927ff
Anderson, B. and Stoneman, P.
(2008)
Predicting the socio-technical future (and other myths).
In,
Warren, Paul, Davies, John and Brown, David
(eds.)
ICT Futures: Delivering Pervasive, Real-time and Secure Services.
Chichester, GB.
Wiley, .
(doi:10.1002/9780470758656).
Record type:
Book Section
Abstract
A snooker ball model implies that simple, linear and predictable social change follows from the introduction of new technologies. Unfortunately technology does not have and has never had simple linear predictable social impacts. In this chapter we show that in most measurable ways, the pervasiveness of modern information and communication technologies has had little discernable 'impact' on most human behaviours of sociological significance. Historians of technology remind us that human society co-evolves with the technology it invents and that the eventual social and economic uses of a technology often turn out to be far removed from those originally envisioned. Rather than using the snooker ball model to attempt to predict future ICT usage and revenue models that are inevitably wrong, we suggest that truly participatory, grounded innovation, open systems and adaptive revenue models can lead us to a more effective, flexible and responsive innovation process.
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More information
Published date: 11 April 2008
Keywords:
social change, co-adaption, technological change, co-evolution
Organisations:
Energy & Climate Change Group
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 350365
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/350365
ISBN: 978-0-470-99770-3
PURE UUID: 4f190d9c-d5a8-4c78-b07e-6d19dcff9eef
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Date deposited: 26 Mar 2013 11:34
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 13:24
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Contributors
Author:
P. Stoneman
Editor:
Paul Warren
Editor:
John Davies
Editor:
David Brown
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