HIV epidemic trend and antiretroviral treatment need in Karonga District, Malawi
HIV epidemic trend and antiretroviral treatment need in Karonga District, Malawi
We describe the development of the HIV epidemic in Karonga District, Malawi over 22 years using data from population surveys and community samples. These data are used to estimate the trend in HIV prevalence, incidence and need for antiretroviral treatment (ART) using a simple mathematical model. HIV prevalence rose quickly in the late 1980s and early 1990s, stabilizing at around 12% in the mid-1990s. Estimated annual HIV incidence rose quickly, peaking in the early 1990s at 2.2% among males and 3.1% among females, and then levelled off at 1.3% among males and 1.1% among females by the late 1990s. Assuming a 2-year eligibility period, both our model and the UNAIDS models predicted 2.1% of adults were in need of ART in 2005. This prediction was sensitive to the assumed eligibility period, ranging from 1.6% to 2.6% if the eligibility period was instead assumed to be 1.5 or 2.5 years, respectively.
922-932
White, R.G.
d67216d7-2691-4322-9dac-56b96add39e1
Vynnycky, E.
db789668-47a0-429d-8c89-0416e03dd178
Glynn, J.R.
0a3a4c43-6159-49fc-ace9-b3e4670c4557
Crampin, A.C.
79d516bb-98a6-4b0c-a1c2-2406f13f4649
Jahn, A.
75299d2a-929b-48fa-ab3f-5511268cebbf
Mwaungulu, F.
b81a8ccc-2785-4b7a-99cb-c9fde0c5a144
Mwanyongo, O.
5863bd54-a17f-4a56-af8a-4af7d805fb87
Jabu, H.
b9845a03-f778-44d8-8186-2da61fdc4af5
Phiri, H.
9b1cd37a-7a23-4787-a437-643a05358a74
McGrath, N.
b75c0232-24ec-443f-93a9-69e9e12dc961
Zaba, B.
e6c30ee3-64fb-4d0f-8602-599ff1e79043
Fine, P.E.
165bb366-2524-48a6-a8aa-49f9c4b3d2ec
White, R.G.
d67216d7-2691-4322-9dac-56b96add39e1
Vynnycky, E.
db789668-47a0-429d-8c89-0416e03dd178
Glynn, J.R.
0a3a4c43-6159-49fc-ace9-b3e4670c4557
Crampin, A.C.
79d516bb-98a6-4b0c-a1c2-2406f13f4649
Jahn, A.
75299d2a-929b-48fa-ab3f-5511268cebbf
Mwaungulu, F.
b81a8ccc-2785-4b7a-99cb-c9fde0c5a144
Mwanyongo, O.
5863bd54-a17f-4a56-af8a-4af7d805fb87
Jabu, H.
b9845a03-f778-44d8-8186-2da61fdc4af5
Phiri, H.
9b1cd37a-7a23-4787-a437-643a05358a74
McGrath, N.
b75c0232-24ec-443f-93a9-69e9e12dc961
Zaba, B.
e6c30ee3-64fb-4d0f-8602-599ff1e79043
Fine, P.E.
165bb366-2524-48a6-a8aa-49f9c4b3d2ec
White, R.G., Vynnycky, E., Glynn, J.R., Crampin, A.C., Jahn, A., Mwaungulu, F., Mwanyongo, O., Jabu, H., Phiri, H., McGrath, N., Zaba, B. and Fine, P.E.
(2007)
HIV epidemic trend and antiretroviral treatment need in Karonga District, Malawi.
Epidemiology and Infection, 135 (6), .
(doi:10.1017/S0950268806007680).
(PMID:17217548)
Abstract
We describe the development of the HIV epidemic in Karonga District, Malawi over 22 years using data from population surveys and community samples. These data are used to estimate the trend in HIV prevalence, incidence and need for antiretroviral treatment (ART) using a simple mathematical model. HIV prevalence rose quickly in the late 1980s and early 1990s, stabilizing at around 12% in the mid-1990s. Estimated annual HIV incidence rose quickly, peaking in the early 1990s at 2.2% among males and 3.1% among females, and then levelled off at 1.3% among males and 1.1% among females by the late 1990s. Assuming a 2-year eligibility period, both our model and the UNAIDS models predicted 2.1% of adults were in need of ART in 2005. This prediction was sensitive to the assumed eligibility period, ranging from 1.6% to 2.6% if the eligibility period was instead assumed to be 1.5 or 2.5 years, respectively.
Text
White et al, HIV in Karonga, Epi and Inf, 2007.pdf
- Version of Record
Restricted to Repository staff only
Request a copy
More information
e-pub ahead of print date: 12 January 2007
Organisations:
Primary Care & Population Sciences, Faculty of Social, Human and Mathematical Sciences
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 350481
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/350481
ISSN: 0950-2688
PURE UUID: 51bfd696-ed0f-45fb-920b-04b02e10862e
Catalogue record
Date deposited: 25 Mar 2013 15:24
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:46
Export record
Altmetrics
Contributors
Author:
R.G. White
Author:
E. Vynnycky
Author:
J.R. Glynn
Author:
A.C. Crampin
Author:
A. Jahn
Author:
F. Mwaungulu
Author:
O. Mwanyongo
Author:
H. Jabu
Author:
H. Phiri
Author:
B. Zaba
Author:
P.E. Fine
Download statistics
Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.
View more statistics
