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How warming and steric sea level rise relate to cumulative carbon emissions

How warming and steric sea level rise relate to cumulative carbon emissions
How warming and steric sea level rise relate to cumulative carbon emissions
Surface warming and steric sea level rise over the global ocean nearly linearly increase with cumulative carbon emissions for an atmosphere-ocean equilibrium, reached many centuries after emissions cease. Surface warming increases with cumulative emissions with a proportionality factor, ?Tsurface:2xCO2/(IB ln 2), ranging from 0.8 to 1.9 K (1000 PgC)-1 for surface air temperature, depending on the climate sensitivity ?Tsurface:2xCO2 and the buffered carbon inventory IB. Steric sea level rise similarly increases with cumulative emissions and depends on the climate sensitivity of the bulk ocean, ranging from 0.4 K to 2.7 K; a factor 0.4 ± 0.2 smaller than that for surface temperature based on diagnostics of two Earth System models. The implied steric sea level rise ranges from 0.7 m to 5 m for a cumulative emission of 5000 PgC, approached perhaps 500 years or more after emissions cease.
anthropogenic warming, carbon emissions, ocean warming, surface warming
0094-8276
L19715-[6pp]
Williams, Richard G.
2155309e-1c07-4365-b46a-04baeb2fb63c
Goodwin, Philip
87dbb154-5c39-473a-8121-c794487ee1fd
Ridgwell, Andy
769cea5c-e033-456a-8b53-51dfa307dc35
Woodworth, Philip L.
853b6594-9a7f-4d79-9f9b-45f73894f98f
Williams, Richard G.
2155309e-1c07-4365-b46a-04baeb2fb63c
Goodwin, Philip
87dbb154-5c39-473a-8121-c794487ee1fd
Ridgwell, Andy
769cea5c-e033-456a-8b53-51dfa307dc35
Woodworth, Philip L.
853b6594-9a7f-4d79-9f9b-45f73894f98f

Williams, Richard G., Goodwin, Philip, Ridgwell, Andy and Woodworth, Philip L. (2012) How warming and steric sea level rise relate to cumulative carbon emissions. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (19), L19715-[6pp]. (doi:10.1029/2012GL052771).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Surface warming and steric sea level rise over the global ocean nearly linearly increase with cumulative carbon emissions for an atmosphere-ocean equilibrium, reached many centuries after emissions cease. Surface warming increases with cumulative emissions with a proportionality factor, ?Tsurface:2xCO2/(IB ln 2), ranging from 0.8 to 1.9 K (1000 PgC)-1 for surface air temperature, depending on the climate sensitivity ?Tsurface:2xCO2 and the buffered carbon inventory IB. Steric sea level rise similarly increases with cumulative emissions and depends on the climate sensitivity of the bulk ocean, ranging from 0.4 K to 2.7 K; a factor 0.4 ± 0.2 smaller than that for surface temperature based on diagnostics of two Earth System models. The implied steric sea level rise ranges from 0.7 m to 5 m for a cumulative emission of 5000 PgC, approached perhaps 500 years or more after emissions cease.

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More information

e-pub ahead of print date: 13 October 2012
Published date: October 2012
Keywords: anthropogenic warming, carbon emissions, ocean warming, surface warming
Organisations: Ocean and Earth Science

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 350502
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/350502
ISSN: 0094-8276
PURE UUID: fbb8b235-3036-4808-a4d0-669571335779
ORCID for Philip Goodwin: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-2575-8948

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 26 Mar 2013 09:48
Last modified: 28 Apr 2022 02:09

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Contributors

Author: Richard G. Williams
Author: Philip Goodwin ORCID iD
Author: Andy Ridgwell
Author: Philip L. Woodworth

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