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Model selection uncertainty and detection of threshold effects

Model selection uncertainty and detection of threshold effects
Model selection uncertainty and detection of threshold effects
Inferences about the presence or absence of threshold type nonlinearities in TAR models are conducted within models whose lag length has been estimated in a preliminary stage. Typically the null hypothesis of linearity is then tested against a threshold alternative on which the estimated lag length is imposed on each regime. In this paper we evaluate the properties of test statistics for detecting the presence of threshold effects in autoregressive models when this model uncertainty is taken into account. We show that this approach may lead to important distortions when the underlying model has truly threshold effects by establishing the limiting properties of the estimated lag length in the mispecified linear autoregressive fit and assessing the impact of this model uncertainty on the power of the tests. We subsequently propose a full model selection based approach designed to jointly detect the presence of threshold effects and optimally specify its dynamics and compare its performance with the traditional test based approach.
threshold models, SETAR, model selection
1558-3708
1-40
Pitarakis, Jean-Yves
ee5519ae-9c0f-4d79-8a3a-c25db105bd51
Pitarakis, Jean-Yves
ee5519ae-9c0f-4d79-8a3a-c25db105bd51

Pitarakis, Jean-Yves (2006) Model selection uncertainty and detection of threshold effects. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 10 (1, article 5), 1-40.

Record type: Article

Abstract

Inferences about the presence or absence of threshold type nonlinearities in TAR models are conducted within models whose lag length has been estimated in a preliminary stage. Typically the null hypothesis of linearity is then tested against a threshold alternative on which the estimated lag length is imposed on each regime. In this paper we evaluate the properties of test statistics for detecting the presence of threshold effects in autoregressive models when this model uncertainty is taken into account. We show that this approach may lead to important distortions when the underlying model has truly threshold effects by establishing the limiting properties of the estimated lag length in the mispecified linear autoregressive fit and assessing the impact of this model uncertainty on the power of the tests. We subsequently propose a full model selection based approach designed to jointly detect the presence of threshold effects and optimally specify its dynamics and compare its performance with the traditional test based approach.

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More information

Published date: 1 March 2006
Keywords: threshold models, SETAR, model selection

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 35058
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/35058
ISSN: 1558-3708
PURE UUID: 509ec15e-409a-42b7-8e46-5ef7e7b383e1
ORCID for Jean-Yves Pitarakis: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-6305-7421

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 15 May 2006
Last modified: 09 Jan 2022 03:12

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