Has estimation of numbers of cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 in England in 2009 provided a useful measure of the occurrence of disease?

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Surveillance indicators of influenza activity have generally provided robust comparative trend data for England. These indicators became less reliable, however, for monitoring trends in activity, or comparisons with previous years, during the influenza pandemic in 2009 because of changes in the perception of risk and changes in the systems of healthcare delivery. An approach was developed to estimate the number of cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) occurring because of infection with pandemic influenza virus. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The number of cases was estimated each week in England on the basis of total number of patients consulting healthcare services with ILI; estimates of the proportion of individuals in the community experiencing an ILI-seeking health care; and the proportion of these positive on laboratory testing. Almost 800,000 cases (range 375,000-1.6 million) of symptomatic ILI cases were estimated to have occurred over the course of the two waves of pandemic activity in England. More cases were estimated to have occurred in the second wave than in the first. CONCLUSIONS: These results underestimate the total number of infections as they do not include asymptomatic infections nor those with mild illness not meeting the definition of a case of ILI. Nevertheless, the case number estimates provide a useful indicator of the trend in influenza activity and weekly data were extensively used in media reports. Although surveillance methods differ between countries, the approach of synthesising available data sources to produce an overall estimate of case numbers could be applied more widely to provide comparative data.

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