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The impact of global warming on seasonality of ocean primary production

The impact of global warming on seasonality of ocean primary production
The impact of global warming on seasonality of ocean primary production
The seasonal cycle (i.e. phenology) of oceanic primary production (PP) is expected to change in response to climate warming. Here, we use output from 6 global biogeochemical models to examine the response in the seasonal amplitude of PP and timing of peak PP to the IPCC AR5 warming scenario. We also investigate whether trends in PP phenology may be more rapidly detectable than trends in annual mean PP. The seasonal amplitude of PP decreases by an average of 1–2 % per year by 2100 in most biomes, with the exception of the Arctic which sees an increase of ? 1 % per year. This is accompanied by an advance in the timing of peak PP by ? 0.5–1 months by 2100 over much of the globe, and particularly pronounced in the Arctic. These changes are driven by an increase in seasonal amplitude of sea surface temperature (where the maxima get hotter faster than the minima) and a decrease in the seasonal amplitude of the mixed layer depth and surface nitrate concentration. Our results indicate a transformation of currently strongly seasonal (bloom forming) regions, typically found at high latitudes, into weakly seasonal (non-bloom) regions, characteristic of contemporary subtropical conditions. On average, 36 yr of data are needed to detect a climate-change-driven trend in the seasonal amplitude of PP, compared to 32 yr for mean annual PP. Monthly resolution model output is found to be inadequate for resolving phenological changes. We conclude that analysis of phytoplankton seasonality is not necessarily a shortcut to detecting climate change impacts on ocean productivity.
1726-4170
4357-4369
Henson, S.A.
d6532e17-a65b-4d7b-9ee3-755ecb565c19
Cole, H.
29d57992-20e7-4777-bf3f-8441b6a45140
Beaulieu, C.
13ae2c11-ebfe-48d9-bda9-122cd013c021
Yool, A.
882aeb0d-dda0-405e-844c-65b68cce5017
Henson, S.A.
d6532e17-a65b-4d7b-9ee3-755ecb565c19
Cole, H.
29d57992-20e7-4777-bf3f-8441b6a45140
Beaulieu, C.
13ae2c11-ebfe-48d9-bda9-122cd013c021
Yool, A.
882aeb0d-dda0-405e-844c-65b68cce5017

Henson, S.A., Cole, H., Beaulieu, C. and Yool, A. (2013) The impact of global warming on seasonality of ocean primary production. Biogeosciences, 10 (6), 4357-4369. (doi:10.5194/bg-10-4357-2013).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The seasonal cycle (i.e. phenology) of oceanic primary production (PP) is expected to change in response to climate warming. Here, we use output from 6 global biogeochemical models to examine the response in the seasonal amplitude of PP and timing of peak PP to the IPCC AR5 warming scenario. We also investigate whether trends in PP phenology may be more rapidly detectable than trends in annual mean PP. The seasonal amplitude of PP decreases by an average of 1–2 % per year by 2100 in most biomes, with the exception of the Arctic which sees an increase of ? 1 % per year. This is accompanied by an advance in the timing of peak PP by ? 0.5–1 months by 2100 over much of the globe, and particularly pronounced in the Arctic. These changes are driven by an increase in seasonal amplitude of sea surface temperature (where the maxima get hotter faster than the minima) and a decrease in the seasonal amplitude of the mixed layer depth and surface nitrate concentration. Our results indicate a transformation of currently strongly seasonal (bloom forming) regions, typically found at high latitudes, into weakly seasonal (non-bloom) regions, characteristic of contemporary subtropical conditions. On average, 36 yr of data are needed to detect a climate-change-driven trend in the seasonal amplitude of PP, compared to 32 yr for mean annual PP. Monthly resolution model output is found to be inadequate for resolving phenological changes. We conclude that analysis of phytoplankton seasonality is not necessarily a shortcut to detecting climate change impacts on ocean productivity.

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More information

Published date: 28 June 2013
Organisations: Marine Systems Modelling, Ocean and Earth Science, Marine Biogeochemistry

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 352268
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/352268
ISSN: 1726-4170
PURE UUID: 4d106e4d-8077-4eb2-8815-4c92e59e401b

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Date deposited: 08 May 2013 11:01
Last modified: 08 Jan 2022 09:08

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Contributors

Author: S.A. Henson
Author: H. Cole
Author: C. Beaulieu
Author: A. Yool

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