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Epidemiological burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in France from 2010 to 2020: estimations from a disease model

Epidemiological burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in France from 2010 to 2020: estimations from a disease model
Epidemiological burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in France from 2010 to 2020: estimations from a disease model
Summary
This article estimates the present and future burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in France in women aged 50 years and over.

Methods
We adapted an existing model developed for Sweden to France. For each year of the study from 1970 to 2020, the ‘incident cohort’ (women experiencing a first osteoporotic fracture) was identified and run through a Markov model using annual cycles. Health states were based on the number of fractures (hip, vertebral, non-hip non-vertebral) and deaths. Transition probabilities reflected fracture site-specific risks of subsequent fractures and of death. Country-specific model inputs included population size and life tables from 1970 to 2020 and incidence of hip fracture.

Results
The model estimated that the number of postmenopausal osteoporotic women was expected to increase from 3.0 million to 3.4 million between 2010 and 2020 (+15.3 %). Assuming that the incidence of fracture by age group does not change over time, the model predicted that the overall number of osteoporotic fractures would increase from 204,234 fractures in 2010 to 241,261 in 2020 (+18.1 %), hip (20.3 %), vertebral (19.0 %) and non-hip non-vertebral fractures (17.0 %).

Conclusion
The aging of the population is expected to drive a marked increase in the prevalence of osteoporosis and in the number of osteoporotic fractures. These data may assist future planning for appropriate heath care provision.
1862-3522
237-246
Cawston, H.
cb858260-3df2-44b0-9c5d-9f5ca8316d94
Maravic, M.
187d3703-b9ac-43d3-999f-6743aebe99d3
Fardellone, P.
e906b74c-f517-46b2-8e5e-7d9e6cdd44e8
Gauthier, A.
eaf7c1cd-495d-4352-bb14-d431c9241fcf
Kanis, J.A.
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Compston, J.
b64c0d0e-97dd-44c8-97ba-f756f0bc966d
Borgstrom, F.
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Cooper, C.
e05f5612-b493-4273-9b71-9e0ce32bdad6
McCloskey, E.
5211de37-303a-42f8-b24b-00c475264f78
Cawston, H.
cb858260-3df2-44b0-9c5d-9f5ca8316d94
Maravic, M.
187d3703-b9ac-43d3-999f-6743aebe99d3
Fardellone, P.
e906b74c-f517-46b2-8e5e-7d9e6cdd44e8
Gauthier, A.
eaf7c1cd-495d-4352-bb14-d431c9241fcf
Kanis, J.A.
8da04a36-08a7-4310-b4b4-a6d432439587
Compston, J.
b64c0d0e-97dd-44c8-97ba-f756f0bc966d
Borgstrom, F.
c8fa813a-a664-4de4-bbc5-4ab1ca92ef55
Cooper, C.
e05f5612-b493-4273-9b71-9e0ce32bdad6
McCloskey, E.
5211de37-303a-42f8-b24b-00c475264f78

Cawston, H., Maravic, M., Fardellone, P., Gauthier, A., Kanis, J.A., Compston, J., Borgstrom, F., Cooper, C. and McCloskey, E. (2012) Epidemiological burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in France from 2010 to 2020: estimations from a disease model. Archives of Osteoporosis, 7 (1-2), 237-246. (doi:10.1007/s11657-012-0102-3). (PMID:23060309)

Record type: Article

Abstract

Summary
This article estimates the present and future burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in France in women aged 50 years and over.

Methods
We adapted an existing model developed for Sweden to France. For each year of the study from 1970 to 2020, the ‘incident cohort’ (women experiencing a first osteoporotic fracture) was identified and run through a Markov model using annual cycles. Health states were based on the number of fractures (hip, vertebral, non-hip non-vertebral) and deaths. Transition probabilities reflected fracture site-specific risks of subsequent fractures and of death. Country-specific model inputs included population size and life tables from 1970 to 2020 and incidence of hip fracture.

Results
The model estimated that the number of postmenopausal osteoporotic women was expected to increase from 3.0 million to 3.4 million between 2010 and 2020 (+15.3 %). Assuming that the incidence of fracture by age group does not change over time, the model predicted that the overall number of osteoporotic fractures would increase from 204,234 fractures in 2010 to 241,261 in 2020 (+18.1 %), hip (20.3 %), vertebral (19.0 %) and non-hip non-vertebral fractures (17.0 %).

Conclusion
The aging of the population is expected to drive a marked increase in the prevalence of osteoporosis and in the number of osteoporotic fractures. These data may assist future planning for appropriate heath care provision.

Full text not available from this repository.

More information

Published date: December 2012
Organisations: Faculty of Medicine

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 352420
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/352420
ISSN: 1862-3522
PURE UUID: 55263f72-5438-4c2e-9d44-539f794376c7
ORCID for C. Cooper: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-3510-0709

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 14 May 2013 08:43
Last modified: 06 Jun 2018 13:00

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Contributors

Author: H. Cawston
Author: M. Maravic
Author: P. Fardellone
Author: A. Gauthier
Author: J.A. Kanis
Author: J. Compston
Author: F. Borgstrom
Author: C. Cooper ORCID iD
Author: E. McCloskey

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