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Burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in Germany: estimations from a disease model

Burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in Germany: estimations from a disease model
Burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in Germany: estimations from a disease model
Summary
This article describes the adaptation of a model assessing the incidence of osteoporotic fractures and prevalence of postmenopausal osteoporosis (PMO) in Germany.

Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the epidemiological burden of PMO in Germany from 2010 to 2020.

Methods
For each year of the study, the ‘incident cohort’ (women experiencing a first osteoporotic fracture) was identified and run through a Markov model using 1-year cycles until 2020. Health states were based on the number of fractures (1, 2 or ?3) and deaths. Although the fracture site was not explicitly accounted for in the model structure, the site (hip, vertebral, non-hip non-vertebral) was tracked for each health state. Transition probabilities reflected the site-specific risk of death and of subsequent fractures. Model inputs included population size and life tables from 1970 to 2020, incidence of fracture and BMD by age in the general population (mean and standard deviation).

Results
In 2010, the number of osteoporotic fractures was estimated at 349,560 in women aged 50 years or more, including 80,177 hip and 48,550 vertebral fractures. By 2020, the population is expected to grow by 13.1 %. As a result, the number of fractures is predicted to increase by 15.2 %. The improvement in life expectancy is predicted to lead to a relatively smaller increase in the number of deaths attributable to fractures (+12.8 %), but also to an increase in the prevalence of women with multiple prior fractures (+25.5 %).

Conclusion
The PMO disease model, first developed for Sweden, was adapted to Germany. Due to the ageing of the population, the number of osteoporotic fractures is expected to increase markedly by +15.2 % by 2020.
1862-3522
209-218
Gauthier, A.
eaf7c1cd-495d-4352-bb14-d431c9241fcf
Kanis, J.A.
8da04a36-08a7-4310-b4b4-a6d432439587
Jiang, Y.
8637ec0f-8af3-44b9-87e6-bec78a09e9fa
Dreinhofer, K.
23dfa41b-9f6b-425a-85ae-5f5bb97ef578
Martin, M.
51030542-f483-42b7-b267-e9c965c1d6ba
Compston, J.
b64c0d0e-97dd-44c8-97ba-f756f0bc966d
Borgstrom, F.
c8fa813a-a664-4de4-bbc5-4ab1ca92ef55
Cooper, C.
e05f5612-b493-4273-9b71-9e0ce32bdad6
McCloskey, E.
5211de37-303a-42f8-b24b-00c475264f78
Gauthier, A.
eaf7c1cd-495d-4352-bb14-d431c9241fcf
Kanis, J.A.
8da04a36-08a7-4310-b4b4-a6d432439587
Jiang, Y.
8637ec0f-8af3-44b9-87e6-bec78a09e9fa
Dreinhofer, K.
23dfa41b-9f6b-425a-85ae-5f5bb97ef578
Martin, M.
51030542-f483-42b7-b267-e9c965c1d6ba
Compston, J.
b64c0d0e-97dd-44c8-97ba-f756f0bc966d
Borgstrom, F.
c8fa813a-a664-4de4-bbc5-4ab1ca92ef55
Cooper, C.
e05f5612-b493-4273-9b71-9e0ce32bdad6
McCloskey, E.
5211de37-303a-42f8-b24b-00c475264f78

Gauthier, A., Kanis, J.A., Jiang, Y., Dreinhofer, K., Martin, M., Compston, J., Borgstrom, F., Cooper, C. and McCloskey, E. (2012) Burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in Germany: estimations from a disease model. Archives of Osteoporosis, 7 (1-2), 209-218. (doi:10.1007/s11657-012-0099-7). (PMID:23196864)

Record type: Article

Abstract

Summary
This article describes the adaptation of a model assessing the incidence of osteoporotic fractures and prevalence of postmenopausal osteoporosis (PMO) in Germany.

Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the epidemiological burden of PMO in Germany from 2010 to 2020.

Methods
For each year of the study, the ‘incident cohort’ (women experiencing a first osteoporotic fracture) was identified and run through a Markov model using 1-year cycles until 2020. Health states were based on the number of fractures (1, 2 or ?3) and deaths. Although the fracture site was not explicitly accounted for in the model structure, the site (hip, vertebral, non-hip non-vertebral) was tracked for each health state. Transition probabilities reflected the site-specific risk of death and of subsequent fractures. Model inputs included population size and life tables from 1970 to 2020, incidence of fracture and BMD by age in the general population (mean and standard deviation).

Results
In 2010, the number of osteoporotic fractures was estimated at 349,560 in women aged 50 years or more, including 80,177 hip and 48,550 vertebral fractures. By 2020, the population is expected to grow by 13.1 %. As a result, the number of fractures is predicted to increase by 15.2 %. The improvement in life expectancy is predicted to lead to a relatively smaller increase in the number of deaths attributable to fractures (+12.8 %), but also to an increase in the prevalence of women with multiple prior fractures (+25.5 %).

Conclusion
The PMO disease model, first developed for Sweden, was adapted to Germany. Due to the ageing of the population, the number of osteoporotic fractures is expected to increase markedly by +15.2 % by 2020.

Full text not available from this repository.

More information

Published date: December 2012
Organisations: Faculty of Medicine

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 352448
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/352448
ISSN: 1862-3522
PURE UUID: 9a982bf0-4c23-4a54-9517-6b29915ee27c
ORCID for C. Cooper: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-3510-0709

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Date deposited: 14 May 2013 11:04
Last modified: 20 Jul 2019 01:14

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Contributors

Author: A. Gauthier
Author: J.A. Kanis
Author: Y. Jiang
Author: K. Dreinhofer
Author: M. Martin
Author: J. Compston
Author: F. Borgstrom
Author: C. Cooper ORCID iD
Author: E. McCloskey

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