Adapting to sea-level rise: relative sea level trends to 2100 for the United States

Nicholls, R.J. and Leatherman, S.P. (1996) Adapting to sea-level rise: relative sea level trends to 2100 for the United States. Coastal Management, 24 (4), 301-324. (doi:10.1080/08920759609362298).

Abstract

Global sea levels have slowly risen during this century, and that rise is expected to accelerate in the coming century due to anthropogenic global warming. A total rise of up to 1 m is possible by the year 2100 (relative to 1990). To deal with this change, coastal managers require site-specific information on relative (i.e., local) changes in sea level to determine what might be threatened. Therefore as a first step, global sea-level rise scenarios need to be transformed into relative sea-level change scenarios which take account of local and regional factors, such as vertical land movements, in addition to global changes. Even present rates of relative sea-level rise have important long-term implications for coastal management-projecting existing trends predicts a relative sea-level rise from 1990 to 2100 of up to 0.4 m and 1.15 m for the Mid-Atlantic Region and Louisiana, respectively. Ignoring sea-level rise will lead to unwise decisions and increasing hazard with time.

This article adapts the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global scenarios for sea-level rise (Warrick et al., 1996) to three relative sea-level rise scenarios for the contiguous United States. These scenarios cover the period 1990 to 2100 and provide a basis to assess possible proactive measures for sea-level rise. However, they are subject to the same uncertainties as the global scenarios as most of the sea-level rise will occur decades into the future. When considering what should be done now in response to future sea-level rise, given these large uncertainties, it is best to identify (1) low-cost, no regret responses which would maintain or enhance the choices available to tomorrow's coastal managers; and (2) sectors where reactive adaptation would have particularly high costs and where allowance for future sea-level rise can be considered a worthwhile “insurance policy.”; Sea-level rise will impact an evolving coastal landscape which already is experiencing a range of other pressures. Therefore, to be most effective, responses to sea-level rise need to be integrated with all other planning occurring in the coastal zone.

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Contributors

Author: R.J. Nicholls

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