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Thermal structure and megathrust seismogenic potential of the Makran subduction zone

Thermal structure and megathrust seismogenic potential of the Makran subduction zone
Thermal structure and megathrust seismogenic potential of the Makran subduction zone
The Makran subduction zone experienced a tsunamigenic Mw 8.1 earthquake in 1945 and recent, smaller earthquakes also suggest seismicity on the megathrust; however, its historical record is limited and hazard potential enigmatic. We have developed a 2-D thermal model of the subduction zone. The results are twofold: (1) The thick sediment cover on the incoming plate leads to high (~150°) plate boundary temperatures at the deformation front making the megathrust potentially seismogenic to a shallow depth, and (2) the shallow dip of the subducting plate leads to a wide potential seismogenic zone (up to ~350?km). Combining these results with along strike rupture scenarios indicates that Mw8.7–9.2 earthquakes are possible in the seaward Makran subduction zone. These results have important earthquake and tsunami hazard implications, particularly for the adjacent coastlines of Pakistan, Iran, Oman, and India, as the Makran has not been previously considered a likely candidate for a Mw?>?9 earthquake.
makran, seismogenic potential, subduction zone, tsunami, thermal modeling, earthquake
0094-8276
1528-1533
Smith, Gemma L.
b7a65fcd-0bfc-48ef-8d9c-a68aa6cddd39
McNeill, Lisa C.
1fe6a1e0-ca1a-4b6f-8469-309d0f9de0cf
Wang, Kelin
c4a8889f-85b6-46b8-b984-3e9d744ea6eb
He, Jiangheng
1dd8853e-9554-4221-9224-61cb00bc0852
Henstock, Timothy J.
27c450a4-3e6b-41f8-97f9-4e0e181400bb
Smith, Gemma L.
b7a65fcd-0bfc-48ef-8d9c-a68aa6cddd39
McNeill, Lisa C.
1fe6a1e0-ca1a-4b6f-8469-309d0f9de0cf
Wang, Kelin
c4a8889f-85b6-46b8-b984-3e9d744ea6eb
He, Jiangheng
1dd8853e-9554-4221-9224-61cb00bc0852
Henstock, Timothy J.
27c450a4-3e6b-41f8-97f9-4e0e181400bb

Smith, Gemma L., McNeill, Lisa C., Wang, Kelin, He, Jiangheng and Henstock, Timothy J. (2013) Thermal structure and megathrust seismogenic potential of the Makran subduction zone. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (8), 1528-1533. (doi:10.1002/grl.50374).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The Makran subduction zone experienced a tsunamigenic Mw 8.1 earthquake in 1945 and recent, smaller earthquakes also suggest seismicity on the megathrust; however, its historical record is limited and hazard potential enigmatic. We have developed a 2-D thermal model of the subduction zone. The results are twofold: (1) The thick sediment cover on the incoming plate leads to high (~150°) plate boundary temperatures at the deformation front making the megathrust potentially seismogenic to a shallow depth, and (2) the shallow dip of the subducting plate leads to a wide potential seismogenic zone (up to ~350?km). Combining these results with along strike rupture scenarios indicates that Mw8.7–9.2 earthquakes are possible in the seaward Makran subduction zone. These results have important earthquake and tsunami hazard implications, particularly for the adjacent coastlines of Pakistan, Iran, Oman, and India, as the Makran has not been previously considered a likely candidate for a Mw?>?9 earthquake.

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Published date: 28 April 2013
Keywords: makran, seismogenic potential, subduction zone, tsunami, thermal modeling, earthquake
Organisations: Geology & Geophysics

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 353043
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/353043
ISSN: 0094-8276
PURE UUID: e320b2ae-55a7-4ae5-9cef-f07fed458484
ORCID for Timothy J. Henstock: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-2132-2514

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Date deposited: 24 May 2013 08:28
Last modified: 17 Dec 2019 01:53

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Contributors

Author: Gemma L. Smith
Author: Lisa C. McNeill
Author: Kelin Wang
Author: Jiangheng He

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