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Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom: an exploration using Bayesian models

Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom: an exploration using Bayesian models
Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom: an exploration using Bayesian models
Over the next 50 years, the potential impact of environmental change on human livelihoods could be considerable, with one possible consequence being increased levels of human mobility. This paper explores how uncertainty about the level of immigration to the United Kingdom as a consequence of environmental factors elsewhere may be forecast using a methodology involving Bayesian models. The conceptual understanding of forecasting is advanced in three ways. First, the analysis is believed to be the first time that the Bayesian modelling approach has been attempted in relation to environmental mobility. Second, the paper considers the expediency of this approach by comparing the responses to a Delphi survey with conventional expectations about environmental mobility in the research literature. Finally, the values and assumptions of the expert evidence provided in the Delphi survey are interrogated to illustrate the limited set of conditions under which forecasts of environmental mobility, as set out in this paper, are likely to hold.
bayesian forecasting, delphi survey, environmental mobility, climate change, environmental migration, united kingdom
0199-0039
183-203
Abel, Guy J.
d35b5069-3c52-4d13-a678-1684ae1fce1e
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Findlay, Allan M.
4c7e94d1-f1bc-4eb9-a22e-68d9070407d4
McCollum, David
c3c30d9b-f56f-440e-9b72-d6c088adea36
Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz
ec9da054-45f0-4393-ad91-87e8f9750ae9
Abel, Guy J.
d35b5069-3c52-4d13-a678-1684ae1fce1e
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Findlay, Allan M.
4c7e94d1-f1bc-4eb9-a22e-68d9070407d4
McCollum, David
c3c30d9b-f56f-440e-9b72-d6c088adea36
Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz
ec9da054-45f0-4393-ad91-87e8f9750ae9

Abel, Guy J., Bijak, Jakub, Findlay, Allan M., McCollum, David and Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz (2013) Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom: an exploration using Bayesian models. Population and Environment, 35 (2), 183-203. (doi:10.1007/s11111-013-0186-8).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Over the next 50 years, the potential impact of environmental change on human livelihoods could be considerable, with one possible consequence being increased levels of human mobility. This paper explores how uncertainty about the level of immigration to the United Kingdom as a consequence of environmental factors elsewhere may be forecast using a methodology involving Bayesian models. The conceptual understanding of forecasting is advanced in three ways. First, the analysis is believed to be the first time that the Bayesian modelling approach has been attempted in relation to environmental mobility. Second, the paper considers the expediency of this approach by comparing the responses to a Delphi survey with conventional expectations about environmental mobility in the research literature. Finally, the values and assumptions of the expert evidence provided in the Delphi survey are interrogated to illustrate the limited set of conditions under which forecasts of environmental mobility, as set out in this paper, are likely to hold.

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More information

e-pub ahead of print date: 9 April 2013
Published date: 1 December 2013
Keywords: bayesian forecasting, delphi survey, environmental mobility, climate change, environmental migration, united kingdom
Organisations: Social Statistics & Demography, Statistical Sciences Research Institute

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 353780
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/353780
ISSN: 0199-0039
PURE UUID: ef0d7ef6-da76-469e-b19b-c61afdd0b98e
ORCID for Jakub Bijak: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-2563-5040

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 18 Jun 2013 09:16
Last modified: 06 Jun 2018 12:35

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