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Observed mean sea level changes around the North Sea coastline from 1800 to present

Observed mean sea level changes around the North Sea coastline from 1800 to present
Observed mean sea level changes around the North Sea coastline from 1800 to present
This paper assesses historic changes in mean sea level around the coastline of the North Sea, one of the most densely populated coasts in the world. Typically, such analyses have been conducted at a national level, and detailed geographically wider analyses have not been undertaken for about 20 years. We analyse long records (up to 200 years) from 30 tide gauge sites, which are reasonably uniformly distributed along the coastline, and: (1) calculate relative sea level trends; (2) examine the inter-annual and decadal variations; (3) estimate regional geocentric (sometimes also referred to as ‘absolute’) sea level rise throughout the 20th century; and (4) assess the evidence for regional acceleration of sea-level rise. Relative sea level changes are broadly consistent with known vertical land movement patterns. The inter-annual and decadal variability is partly coherent across the region, but with some differences between the Inner North Sea and the English Channel. Data sets from various sources are used to provide estimates of the geocentric sea level changes. The long-term geocentric mean sea level trend for the 1900 to 2011 period is estimated to be 1.5 ± 0.1 mm/yr for the entire North Sea region. The trend is slightly higher for the Inner North Sea (i.e. 1.6 ± 0.1 mm/yr), and smaller but not significantly different on the 95% confidence level for the English Channel (i.e. 1.2 ± 0.1 mm/yr). The uncertainties in the estimates of vertical land movement rates are still large, and the results from a broad range of approaches for determining these rates are not consistent. Periods of sea level rise acceleration are detected at different times throughout the last 200 years and are to some extent related to air pressure variations. The recent rates of sea level rise (i.e. over the last two to three decades) are high compared to the long-term average, but are comparable to those which have been observed at other times in the late 19th and 20th century.
mean sea level changes, tide gauges, vertical land movement, north sea, english channel
0012-8252
51-67
Wahl, Thomas
6506794a-1f35-4803-b7f7-98702e57e667
Haigh, I.D.
945ff20a-589c-47b7-b06f-61804367eb2d
Woodworth, P.L.
87be7ad1-fdaa-479e-9750-2aef89ecdab7
Albrecht, F.
c05bfc8d-8541-4fd1-ac3f-03e1cc90996f
Dillingh, D.
a40bc5fb-0c5e-42ea-80b7-e380ba0b9f42
Jensen, J.
ef7e5ff0-e225-4160-aed7-407c2d78a090
Nicholls, R.J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Weisse, R.
07afa77b-2f58-40f3-9457-a6d62568ff78
Wöppelmann, G.
68a3a6fe-dac3-4b41-9a5e-a49dd6fa0a7d
Wahl, Thomas
6506794a-1f35-4803-b7f7-98702e57e667
Haigh, I.D.
945ff20a-589c-47b7-b06f-61804367eb2d
Woodworth, P.L.
87be7ad1-fdaa-479e-9750-2aef89ecdab7
Albrecht, F.
c05bfc8d-8541-4fd1-ac3f-03e1cc90996f
Dillingh, D.
a40bc5fb-0c5e-42ea-80b7-e380ba0b9f42
Jensen, J.
ef7e5ff0-e225-4160-aed7-407c2d78a090
Nicholls, R.J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Weisse, R.
07afa77b-2f58-40f3-9457-a6d62568ff78
Wöppelmann, G.
68a3a6fe-dac3-4b41-9a5e-a49dd6fa0a7d

Wahl, Thomas, Haigh, I.D., Woodworth, P.L., Albrecht, F., Dillingh, D., Jensen, J., Nicholls, R.J., Weisse, R. and Wöppelmann, G. (2013) Observed mean sea level changes around the North Sea coastline from 1800 to present. Earth-Science Reviews, 124, 51-67. (doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2013.05.003).

Record type: Article

Abstract

This paper assesses historic changes in mean sea level around the coastline of the North Sea, one of the most densely populated coasts in the world. Typically, such analyses have been conducted at a national level, and detailed geographically wider analyses have not been undertaken for about 20 years. We analyse long records (up to 200 years) from 30 tide gauge sites, which are reasonably uniformly distributed along the coastline, and: (1) calculate relative sea level trends; (2) examine the inter-annual and decadal variations; (3) estimate regional geocentric (sometimes also referred to as ‘absolute’) sea level rise throughout the 20th century; and (4) assess the evidence for regional acceleration of sea-level rise. Relative sea level changes are broadly consistent with known vertical land movement patterns. The inter-annual and decadal variability is partly coherent across the region, but with some differences between the Inner North Sea and the English Channel. Data sets from various sources are used to provide estimates of the geocentric sea level changes. The long-term geocentric mean sea level trend for the 1900 to 2011 period is estimated to be 1.5 ± 0.1 mm/yr for the entire North Sea region. The trend is slightly higher for the Inner North Sea (i.e. 1.6 ± 0.1 mm/yr), and smaller but not significantly different on the 95% confidence level for the English Channel (i.e. 1.2 ± 0.1 mm/yr). The uncertainties in the estimates of vertical land movement rates are still large, and the results from a broad range of approaches for determining these rates are not consistent. Periods of sea level rise acceleration are detected at different times throughout the last 200 years and are to some extent related to air pressure variations. The recent rates of sea level rise (i.e. over the last two to three decades) are high compared to the long-term average, but are comparable to those which have been observed at other times in the late 19th and 20th century.

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More information

e-pub ahead of print date: 27 May 2013
Published date: September 2013
Keywords: mean sea level changes, tide gauges, vertical land movement, north sea, english channel
Organisations: Energy & Climate Change Group, Coastal & Shelf Research, Civil Maritime & Env. Eng & Sci Unit, Marine Physics and Ocean Climate

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 353835
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/353835
ISSN: 0012-8252
PURE UUID: 477db560-0a55-45da-a4a2-dc695de4e7f5
ORCID for I.D. Haigh: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9722-3061
ORCID for R.J. Nicholls: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 19 Jun 2013 15:59
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:26

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Contributors

Author: Thomas Wahl
Author: I.D. Haigh ORCID iD
Author: P.L. Woodworth
Author: F. Albrecht
Author: D. Dillingh
Author: J. Jensen
Author: R.J. Nicholls ORCID iD
Author: R. Weisse
Author: G. Wöppelmann

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