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Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough

Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough
Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough
Metapopulation rescue effects are thought to be key to the persistence of many acute immunizing infections. Yet the enhancement of persistence through spatial coupling has not been previously quantified. Here we estimate the metapopulation rescue effects for four childhood infections using global WHO reported incidence data by comparing persistence on island countries vs all other countries, while controlling for key variables such as vaccine cover, birth rates and economic development. The relative risk of extinction on islands is significantly higher, and approximately double the risk of extinction in mainland countries. Furthermore, as may be expected, infections with longer infectious periods tend to have the strongest metapopulation rescue effects. Our results quantitate the notion that demography and local community size controls disease persistence
1932-6203
e74696
Metcalf, C. Jessica E.
ce1431b5-f784-4552-b66c-52fcb08f095c
Hampson, Katie
acc34f69-655a-4e87-9ae8-48505464d131
Tatem, Andrew J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Grenfell, Bryan T.
f80f3700-0b24-4932-80bf-d5ac2201882e
Bjørnstad, Ottar N.
a916ed51-d854-4aec-bda1-820d5e24a374
McVernon, Jodie
5763939a-3784-49bc-add3-5c38df397576
McVernon, Jodie
5763939a-3784-49bc-add3-5c38df397576
Metcalf, C. Jessica E.
ce1431b5-f784-4552-b66c-52fcb08f095c
Hampson, Katie
acc34f69-655a-4e87-9ae8-48505464d131
Tatem, Andrew J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Grenfell, Bryan T.
f80f3700-0b24-4932-80bf-d5ac2201882e
Bjørnstad, Ottar N.
a916ed51-d854-4aec-bda1-820d5e24a374

Metcalf, C. Jessica E., Hampson, Katie, Tatem, Andrew J., Grenfell, Bryan T. and Bjørnstad, Ottar N. , McVernon, Jodie (ed.) (2013) Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough. PLoS ONE, 8 (9), e74696. (doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0074696).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Metapopulation rescue effects are thought to be key to the persistence of many acute immunizing infections. Yet the enhancement of persistence through spatial coupling has not been previously quantified. Here we estimate the metapopulation rescue effects for four childhood infections using global WHO reported incidence data by comparing persistence on island countries vs all other countries, while controlling for key variables such as vaccine cover, birth rates and economic development. The relative risk of extinction on islands is significantly higher, and approximately double the risk of extinction in mainland countries. Furthermore, as may be expected, infections with longer infectious periods tend to have the strongest metapopulation rescue effects. Our results quantitate the notion that demography and local community size controls disease persistence

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Published date: 2013
Organisations: Global Env Change & Earth Observation, WorldPop, PHEW – P (Population Health), Population, Health & Wellbeing (PHeW)

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Local EPrints ID: 356644
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/356644
ISSN: 1932-6203
PURE UUID: 15c4affe-e315-4130-bd8f-6977fa6edb03
ORCID for Andrew J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

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Date deposited: 13 Sep 2013 12:39
Last modified: 07 Aug 2019 00:34

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Contributors

Editor: Jodie McVernon
Author: C. Jessica E. Metcalf
Author: Katie Hampson
Author: Andrew J. Tatem ORCID iD
Author: Bryan T. Grenfell
Author: Ottar N. Bjørnstad

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