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Detecting regional anthropogenic trends in ocean acidification against natural variability

Detecting regional anthropogenic trends in ocean acidification against natural variability
Detecting regional anthropogenic trends in ocean acidification against natural variability
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution humans have released ~500 billion metric tons of carbon to the atmosphere through fossil-fuel burning, cement production and land-use changes1, 2. About 30% has been taken up by the oceans3. The oceanic uptake of carbon dioxide leads to changes in marine carbonate chemistry resulting in a decrease of seawater pH and carbonate ion concentration, commonly referred to as ocean acidification. Ocean acidification is considered a major threat to calcifying organisms4, 5, 6. Detecting its magnitude and impacts on regional scales requires accurate knowledge of the level of natural variability of surface ocean carbonate ion concentrations on seasonal to annual timescales and beyond. Ocean observations are severely limited with respect to providing reliable estimates of the signal-to-noise ratio of human-induced trends in carbonate chemistry against natural factors. Using three Earth system models we show that the current anthropogenic trend in ocean acidification already exceeds the level of natural variability by up to 30 times on regional scales. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the current rates of ocean acidification at monitoring sites in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans exceed those experienced during the last glacial termination by two orders of magnitude.
Atmospheric science, Biogeochemistry and geochemistry, Chemistry Impacts Modelling and statistics Oceanography
1758-678X
167-171
Friedrich, T.
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Timmermann, A.
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Abe-Ouchi, A.
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Bates, N.R.
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Chikamoto, M.O.
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Church, M.J.
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Dore, J.E.
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Gledhill, D.K.
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González-Dávila, M.
aadadcbd-8b3e-43e2-9eb8-94bf7685b157
Heinemann, M.
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Ilyina, T.
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Jungclaus, J.H.
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McLeod, E.
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Mouchet, A.
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Santana-Casiano, J.M.
c26a7ff2-e4d5-45ca-b1f0-7afda8cebb7d
Friedrich, T.
57ace87a-f343-4c89-ad5d-35e6661467ef
Timmermann, A.
6726cd89-fa43-4379-8b81-e94ca08d74fa
Abe-Ouchi, A.
292b04f5-70d4-49a3-a651-c0a5ee0d82dc
Bates, N.R.
954a83d6-8424-49e9-8acd-e606221c9c57
Chikamoto, M.O.
df444f12-77cc-4415-a541-251dab6c5a22
Church, M.J.
b1584c42-33ab-4668-9541-2847be4e0210
Dore, J.E.
fd949f18-2904-4fad-a181-05b825363cd3
Gledhill, D.K.
565be2ef-0d98-4844-9d66-679b8d9f3345
González-Dávila, M.
aadadcbd-8b3e-43e2-9eb8-94bf7685b157
Heinemann, M.
7375c608-1074-4321-9834-3f18cd6e5035
Ilyina, T.
29ae0e71-a8f1-43a2-b80d-7cb02a907a37
Jungclaus, J.H.
2e9628e6-5767-4377-bd92-0fe5031597b4
McLeod, E.
85d7750f-582a-4174-a480-c1df65d99a38
Mouchet, A.
ba5a0969-7038-4dc6-8950-847b6c2303e6
Santana-Casiano, J.M.
c26a7ff2-e4d5-45ca-b1f0-7afda8cebb7d

Friedrich, T., Timmermann, A., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bates, N.R., Chikamoto, M.O., Church, M.J., Dore, J.E., Gledhill, D.K., González-Dávila, M., Heinemann, M., Ilyina, T., Jungclaus, J.H., McLeod, E., Mouchet, A. and Santana-Casiano, J.M. (2012) Detecting regional anthropogenic trends in ocean acidification against natural variability. Nature Climate Change, 2 (3), 167-171. (doi:10.1038/nclimate1372).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution humans have released ~500 billion metric tons of carbon to the atmosphere through fossil-fuel burning, cement production and land-use changes1, 2. About 30% has been taken up by the oceans3. The oceanic uptake of carbon dioxide leads to changes in marine carbonate chemistry resulting in a decrease of seawater pH and carbonate ion concentration, commonly referred to as ocean acidification. Ocean acidification is considered a major threat to calcifying organisms4, 5, 6. Detecting its magnitude and impacts on regional scales requires accurate knowledge of the level of natural variability of surface ocean carbonate ion concentrations on seasonal to annual timescales and beyond. Ocean observations are severely limited with respect to providing reliable estimates of the signal-to-noise ratio of human-induced trends in carbonate chemistry against natural factors. Using three Earth system models we show that the current anthropogenic trend in ocean acidification already exceeds the level of natural variability by up to 30 times on regional scales. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the current rates of ocean acidification at monitoring sites in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans exceed those experienced during the last glacial termination by two orders of magnitude.

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Published date: 2012
Keywords: Atmospheric science, Biogeochemistry and geochemistry, Chemistry Impacts Modelling and statistics Oceanography
Organisations: Ocean Biochemistry & Ecosystems

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Local EPrints ID: 356941
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/356941
ISSN: 1758-678X
PURE UUID: dad11080-c0a2-45ff-be1e-fa107f6fedd6

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Date deposited: 17 Sep 2013 13:43
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 14:54

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Contributors

Author: T. Friedrich
Author: A. Timmermann
Author: A. Abe-Ouchi
Author: N.R. Bates
Author: M.O. Chikamoto
Author: M.J. Church
Author: J.E. Dore
Author: D.K. Gledhill
Author: M. González-Dávila
Author: M. Heinemann
Author: T. Ilyina
Author: J.H. Jungclaus
Author: E. McLeod
Author: A. Mouchet
Author: J.M. Santana-Casiano

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