Calibration of subjective probability judgements in a naturalistic setting
Calibration of subjective probability judgements in a naturalistic setting
Results of previous calibration studies are used to identify features of the decision maker and the decision environment which might be expected to result in good calibration. Racetrack bettors and, in particular, the UK parimutuel betting market are identified as possessing such characteristics. In order to explore calibration in this setting, an analysis is undertaken of bets placed on 19,396 horses. A close correlation is observed between the subjective probability judgments of horses' success, implicit in the bettors' wagering activities, and the objective probability of success of the horses concerned. Explanations for the results are offered in terms of characteristics of racetrack bettors and the naturalistic setting, with particular reference to the operation of the betting market. The results contribute to an emergent school of thought which advocates naturalistic enquiry as a complement to laboratory-based experiments in further developing the understanding of decision making.
calibration, probability, decision making, judgment, betting
265-290
Johnson, E. V. Johnson
6d9f1a51-38a8-4011-a792-bfc82040fac4
Bruce, Alistair C.
acee9acc-fd28-44bf-8781-7a9d135319ac
2001
Johnson, E. V. Johnson
6d9f1a51-38a8-4011-a792-bfc82040fac4
Bruce, Alistair C.
acee9acc-fd28-44bf-8781-7a9d135319ac
Johnson, E. V. Johnson and Bruce, Alistair C.
(2001)
Calibration of subjective probability judgements in a naturalistic setting.
Journal of Organizational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes, 85 (2), .
(doi:10.1006/obhd.2000.2949).
Abstract
Results of previous calibration studies are used to identify features of the decision maker and the decision environment which might be expected to result in good calibration. Racetrack bettors and, in particular, the UK parimutuel betting market are identified as possessing such characteristics. In order to explore calibration in this setting, an analysis is undertaken of bets placed on 19,396 horses. A close correlation is observed between the subjective probability judgments of horses' success, implicit in the bettors' wagering activities, and the objective probability of success of the horses concerned. Explanations for the results are offered in terms of characteristics of racetrack bettors and the naturalistic setting, with particular reference to the operation of the betting market. The results contribute to an emergent school of thought which advocates naturalistic enquiry as a complement to laboratory-based experiments in further developing the understanding of decision making.
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Published date: 2001
Additional Information:
Johnson, J.E.V. and A.C. Bruce- Editor -->
Keywords:
calibration, probability, decision making, judgment, betting
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Management
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Local EPrints ID: 35704
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/35704
ISSN: 0749-5978
PURE UUID: 05e29fc9-a69b-4e2a-af95-ecd8fc7c8424
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Date deposited: 22 May 2006
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 07:53
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Author:
E. V. Johnson Johnson
Author:
Alistair C. Bruce
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