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Estimation of malaria incidence in northern Namibia in 2009 using Bayesian conditional-autoregressive spatial-temporal models

Estimation of malaria incidence in northern Namibia in 2009 using Bayesian conditional-autoregressive spatial-temporal models
Estimation of malaria incidence in northern Namibia in 2009 using Bayesian conditional-autoregressive spatial-temporal models
As malaria transmission declines, it becomes increasingly important to monitor changes in malaria incidence rather than prevalence. Here, a spatio-temporal model was used to identify constituencies with high malaria incidence to guide malaria control. Malaria cases were assembled across all age groups along with several environmental covariates. A Bayesian conditional-autoregressive model was used to model the spatial and temporal variation of incidence after adjusting for test positivity rates and health facility utilisation. Of the 144,744 malaria cases recorded in Namibia in 2009, 134,851 were suspected and 9893 were parasitologically confirmed. The mean annual incidence based on the Bayesian model predictions was 13 cases per 1000 population with the highest incidence predicted for constituencies bordering Angola and Zambia. The smoothed maps of incidence highlight trends in disease incidence. For Namibia, the 2009 maps provide a baseline for monitoring the targets of pre-elimination.
namibia, malaria, spatio-temporal, conditional-autoregressive
1877-5845
25-36
Alegana, Victor A.
6fdaa47e-c08c-48bc-b881-1dc7b89085e4
Atkinson, P.M.
96e96579-56fe-424d-a21c-17b6eed13b0b
Wright, Jim A.
94990ecf-f8dd-4649-84f2-b28bf272e464
Kamwi, Richard
6b19b22a-617a-42a5-a161-0c47b675c87a
Uusiku, Petrina
0e75cee1-7fc1-46d8-a11b-72d3413b1884
Katokele, Stark
22560210-ec1e-4dd3-80a8-46ebd063c164
Snow, Robert W.
7ff98228-6657-4b33-9793-b7f91a06c187
Noor, Abdisalan M.
06d32991-29fe-47a5-a62b-fe584c753414
Alegana, Victor A.
6fdaa47e-c08c-48bc-b881-1dc7b89085e4
Atkinson, P.M.
96e96579-56fe-424d-a21c-17b6eed13b0b
Wright, Jim A.
94990ecf-f8dd-4649-84f2-b28bf272e464
Kamwi, Richard
6b19b22a-617a-42a5-a161-0c47b675c87a
Uusiku, Petrina
0e75cee1-7fc1-46d8-a11b-72d3413b1884
Katokele, Stark
22560210-ec1e-4dd3-80a8-46ebd063c164
Snow, Robert W.
7ff98228-6657-4b33-9793-b7f91a06c187
Noor, Abdisalan M.
06d32991-29fe-47a5-a62b-fe584c753414

Alegana, Victor A., Atkinson, P.M., Wright, Jim A., Kamwi, Richard, Uusiku, Petrina, Katokele, Stark, Snow, Robert W. and Noor, Abdisalan M. (2013) Estimation of malaria incidence in northern Namibia in 2009 using Bayesian conditional-autoregressive spatial-temporal models. Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, 7, 25-36. (doi:10.1016/j.sste.2013.09.001).

Record type: Article

Abstract

As malaria transmission declines, it becomes increasingly important to monitor changes in malaria incidence rather than prevalence. Here, a spatio-temporal model was used to identify constituencies with high malaria incidence to guide malaria control. Malaria cases were assembled across all age groups along with several environmental covariates. A Bayesian conditional-autoregressive model was used to model the spatial and temporal variation of incidence after adjusting for test positivity rates and health facility utilisation. Of the 144,744 malaria cases recorded in Namibia in 2009, 134,851 were suspected and 9893 were parasitologically confirmed. The mean annual incidence based on the Bayesian model predictions was 13 cases per 1000 population with the highest incidence predicted for constituencies bordering Angola and Zambia. The smoothed maps of incidence highlight trends in disease incidence. For Namibia, the 2009 maps provide a baseline for monitoring the targets of pre-elimination.

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More information

e-pub ahead of print date: 17 September 2013
Published date: December 2013
Keywords: namibia, malaria, spatio-temporal, conditional-autoregressive
Organisations: Global Env Change & Earth Observation

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 357159
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/357159
ISSN: 1877-5845
PURE UUID: 5676bf59-2102-47c7-8f84-e1c6bf180e1f
ORCID for P.M. Atkinson: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-5489-6880
ORCID for Jim A. Wright: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-8842-2181

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 04 Oct 2013 13:27
Last modified: 20 Jul 2019 01:20

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Contributors

Author: Victor A. Alegana
Author: P.M. Atkinson ORCID iD
Author: Jim A. Wright ORCID iD
Author: Richard Kamwi
Author: Petrina Uusiku
Author: Stark Katokele
Author: Robert W. Snow
Author: Abdisalan M. Noor

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