Let it snow! let it snow! let it snow! Estimating cocaine production using a novel dataset based on reported seizures of laboratories
Let it snow! let it snow! let it snow! Estimating cocaine production using a novel dataset based on reported seizures of laboratories
Background
Data on the cocaine market appear inconsistent, as they tend to show declining prices vis-a-vis steady or increasing demand and a declining supply. This paper proposes an explanation for this trend by providing evidence of an under-estimation of the supply of cocaine.
Methods
We propose a conservative estimate of cocaine production in Colombia for 2008, using data based on all reported seizures from 328 laboratories made by the counteracting organisations operating within the Colombian territory.
Results
Our conservative estimate of 935 tons from the seized laboratories is at least twice the estimate declared in official statistics of 295–450 tons. We are careful to keep all variables to their minimum boundary values. Our methodology could prove to be a useful tool, especially if used in parallel with the standard tools. Moreover, its characteristics (affordability, ease of use and potential for worldwide adoption) make it a powerful instrument to counteract cocaine production.
cocaine, cocaine production, drug seizures, colombia
449-457
Leoncini, Riccardo
e55b4df1-f510-4426-88b5-fb33457da91d
Rentocchini, Francesco
8ee609a8-8a3f-4a86-94be-5050f7d8c1cb
November 2012
Leoncini, Riccardo
e55b4df1-f510-4426-88b5-fb33457da91d
Rentocchini, Francesco
8ee609a8-8a3f-4a86-94be-5050f7d8c1cb
Leoncini, Riccardo and Rentocchini, Francesco
(2012)
Let it snow! let it snow! let it snow! Estimating cocaine production using a novel dataset based on reported seizures of laboratories.
International Journal of Drug Policy, 23 (6), .
(doi:10.1016/j.drugpo.2012.03.003).
Abstract
Background
Data on the cocaine market appear inconsistent, as they tend to show declining prices vis-a-vis steady or increasing demand and a declining supply. This paper proposes an explanation for this trend by providing evidence of an under-estimation of the supply of cocaine.
Methods
We propose a conservative estimate of cocaine production in Colombia for 2008, using data based on all reported seizures from 328 laboratories made by the counteracting organisations operating within the Colombian territory.
Results
Our conservative estimate of 935 tons from the seized laboratories is at least twice the estimate declared in official statistics of 295–450 tons. We are careful to keep all variables to their minimum boundary values. Our methodology could prove to be a useful tool, especially if used in parallel with the standard tools. Moreover, its characteristics (affordability, ease of use and potential for worldwide adoption) make it a powerful instrument to counteract cocaine production.
Text
LeonciniRentocchini2012_Diff.pdf
- Accepted Manuscript
More information
Published date: November 2012
Keywords:
cocaine, cocaine production, drug seizures, colombia
Organisations:
Strategy, Innovation & Entrepreneurship
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 357287
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/357287
ISSN: 0955-3959
PURE UUID: 470d59d9-19b2-4759-88b6-3c4dfe985650
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Date deposited: 07 Oct 2013 10:33
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 14:57
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Contributors
Author:
Riccardo Leoncini
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