Gluck's second law: an empirical investigation of horserace betting in early and late races
Gluck's second law: an empirical investigation of horserace betting in early and late races
The central premise of «Gluck's Second Law,» which states that «The Best Time to Bet the Favourite is in the Last Race,» is tested. Analysis of a random sample of 1212 bets placed in offcourse betting offices throughout the UK shows that bettors on later races back horses with shorter odds; commit, to some extent, higher stakes and perform at least as well as bettors on early races. The premise underlying «Gluck's Second Law» that bettors back long-shots in later races is questioned in relation to the UK offcourse betting market. Suggestions are offered for these results and avenues for further research are identified.
gamble, play, silver, United Kingdom, human, Europe
1251-1258
Johnson, J.E.V.
6d9f1a51-38a8-4011-a792-bfc82040fac4
Bruce, A.C.
6a4ed45f-ba2b-4274-8e94-bd3d3b4f8da9
1993
Johnson, J.E.V.
6d9f1a51-38a8-4011-a792-bfc82040fac4
Bruce, A.C.
6a4ed45f-ba2b-4274-8e94-bd3d3b4f8da9
Johnson, J.E.V. and Bruce, A.C.
(1993)
Gluck's second law: an empirical investigation of horserace betting in early and late races.
Psychological Reports, 72 (2), .
Abstract
The central premise of «Gluck's Second Law,» which states that «The Best Time to Bet the Favourite is in the Last Race,» is tested. Analysis of a random sample of 1212 bets placed in offcourse betting offices throughout the UK shows that bettors on later races back horses with shorter odds; commit, to some extent, higher stakes and perform at least as well as bettors on early races. The premise underlying «Gluck's Second Law» that bettors back long-shots in later races is questioned in relation to the UK offcourse betting market. Suggestions are offered for these results and avenues for further research are identified.
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Published date: 1993
Keywords:
gamble, play, silver, United Kingdom, human, Europe
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 35774
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/35774
ISSN: 0033-2941
PURE UUID: 6d37d303-5a30-407a-8287-ea2ab6b57e42
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Date deposited: 15 Mar 2007
Last modified: 11 Dec 2021 15:29
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Contributors
Author:
J.E.V. Johnson
Author:
A.C. Bruce
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