Johnson, J.E.V. and Bruce, A.C.
Gluck's second law: an empirical investigation of horserace betting in early and late races
Psychological Reports, 72, (2), .
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The central premise of «Gluck's Second Law,» which states that «The Best Time to Bet the Favourite is in the Last Race,» is tested. Analysis of a random sample of 1212 bets placed in offcourse betting offices throughout the UK shows that bettors on later races back horses with shorter odds; commit, to some extent, higher stakes and perform at least as well as bettors on early races. The premise underlying «Gluck's Second Law» that bettors back long-shots in later races is questioned in relation to the UK offcourse betting market. Suggestions are offered for these results and avenues for further research are identified.
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