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Gluck's second law: an empirical investigation of horserace betting in early and late races

Johnson, J.E.V. and Bruce, A.C. (1993) Gluck's second law: an empirical investigation of horserace betting in early and late races Psychological Reports, 72, (2), pp. 1251-1258.

Record type: Article


The central premise of «Gluck's Second Law,» which states that «The Best Time to Bet the Favourite is in the Last Race,» is tested. Analysis of a random sample of 1212 bets placed in offcourse betting offices throughout the UK shows that bettors on later races back horses with shorter odds; commit, to some extent, higher stakes and perform at least as well as bettors on early races. The premise underlying «Gluck's Second Law» that bettors back long-shots in later races is questioned in relation to the UK offcourse betting market. Suggestions are offered for these results and avenues for further research are identified.

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Published date: 1993
Keywords: gamble, play, silver, United Kingdom, human, Europe


Local EPrints ID: 35774
ISSN: 0033-2941
PURE UUID: 6d37d303-5a30-407a-8287-ea2ab6b57e42

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Date deposited: 15 Mar 2007
Last modified: 17 Jul 2017 15:46

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Author: J.E.V. Johnson
Author: A.C. Bruce

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