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Constructively simple estimating: A design activity project uncertainty example

Constructively simple estimating: A design activity project uncertainty example
Constructively simple estimating: A design activity project uncertainty example
A 'constructively simple' approach to estimating uses a decision support modelling paradigm based on project risk management and operational research concepts. It employs probability models selected from a set of alternative stochastic models of uncertainty with a view to maximising the insight provided, given an appropriate level of complexity. It addresses issues that include the joint use of subjective and objective probabilities, subjectivity of model data and structure, bias, data acquisition costs, the importance of getting an estimate right, optimising the estimating processes involved as a whole in approximate but robust terms, and differences in interpretation of what this means to estimators and users of estimates. Specific applications are necessarily context-specific to some extent, but the underlying ideas are of general applicability. This paper uses a simple example involving estimating the uncertain duration of a project activity to illustrate what is involved.
estimates, uncertainty, risk management, project risk management
0160-5682
1050-1058
Chapman, C.B.
a4f4805b-b67d-4c4c-856b-78e01a2c89a0
Ward, S.C.
ac1bf683-4186-44e7-9f5e-4193ee4d03cd
Chapman, C.B.
a4f4805b-b67d-4c4c-856b-78e01a2c89a0
Ward, S.C.
ac1bf683-4186-44e7-9f5e-4193ee4d03cd

Chapman, C.B. and Ward, S.C. (2003) Constructively simple estimating: A design activity project uncertainty example. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 54 (10), 1050-1058. (doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601610).

Record type: Article

Abstract

A 'constructively simple' approach to estimating uses a decision support modelling paradigm based on project risk management and operational research concepts. It employs probability models selected from a set of alternative stochastic models of uncertainty with a view to maximising the insight provided, given an appropriate level of complexity. It addresses issues that include the joint use of subjective and objective probabilities, subjectivity of model data and structure, bias, data acquisition costs, the importance of getting an estimate right, optimising the estimating processes involved as a whole in approximate but robust terms, and differences in interpretation of what this means to estimators and users of estimates. Specific applications are necessarily context-specific to some extent, but the underlying ideas are of general applicability. This paper uses a simple example involving estimating the uncertain duration of a project activity to illustrate what is involved.

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Published date: 2003
Additional Information: Chapman, C.B. and Ward, S.C.- Editor -->
Keywords: estimates, uncertainty, risk management, project risk management

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 35787
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/35787
ISSN: 0160-5682
PURE UUID: 13803f0f-e476-486d-ac4a-6a62a6928529

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Date deposited: 22 May 2006
Last modified: 08 Jan 2022 01:07

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Contributors

Author: C.B. Chapman
Author: S.C. Ward

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