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The trading profitability of forecasts of the gilt-equity yield ratio

The trading profitability of forecasts of the gilt-equity yield ratio
The trading profitability of forecasts of the gilt-equity yield ratio
Research has highlighted the usefulness of the Gilt–Equity Yield Ratio (GEYR) as a predictor of UK stock returns. This paper extends recent studies by endogenising the threshold at which the GEYR switches from being low to being high or vice versa, thus improving the arbitrary nature of the determination of the threshold employed in the extant literature. It is observed that a decision rule for investing in equities or bonds, based on the forecasts from a regime switching model, yields higher average returns with lower variability than a static portfolio containing any combinations of equities and bonds. A closer inspection of the results reveals that the model has power to forecast when investors should steer clear of equities, although the trading profits generated are insufficient to outweigh the associated transaction costs.
GEYR, Markov switching, regime model, forecasting, equity and bond returns, trading rule
0169-2070
11-29
Brooks, Chris
2be5f663-66b8-43d2-903c-6f800e6e2385
Persand, Gita
d60c4b3f-fd3b-4b0a-892f-3c4eb992f15d
Brooks, Chris
2be5f663-66b8-43d2-903c-6f800e6e2385
Persand, Gita
d60c4b3f-fd3b-4b0a-892f-3c4eb992f15d

Brooks, Chris and Persand, Gita (2001) The trading profitability of forecasts of the gilt-equity yield ratio. International Journal of Forecasting, 17 (1), 11-29. (doi:10.1016/S0169-2070(00)00060-1).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Research has highlighted the usefulness of the Gilt–Equity Yield Ratio (GEYR) as a predictor of UK stock returns. This paper extends recent studies by endogenising the threshold at which the GEYR switches from being low to being high or vice versa, thus improving the arbitrary nature of the determination of the threshold employed in the extant literature. It is observed that a decision rule for investing in equities or bonds, based on the forecasts from a regime switching model, yields higher average returns with lower variability than a static portfolio containing any combinations of equities and bonds. A closer inspection of the results reveals that the model has power to forecast when investors should steer clear of equities, although the trading profits generated are insufficient to outweigh the associated transaction costs.

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More information

Published date: 2001
Keywords: GEYR, Markov switching, regime model, forecasting, equity and bond returns, trading rule

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 35867
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/35867
ISSN: 0169-2070
PURE UUID: 9df5ac5e-734f-42ad-afa4-218b44835599

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 23 May 2006
Last modified: 15 Jul 2019 19:05

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