The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: an application of DIVA

Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: an application of DIVA
Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: an application of DIVA
Due to complexities of creating sea-level rise scenarios, impacts of climate-induced sea-level rise are often produced from a limited number of models assuming a global uniform rise in sea level. A greater number of models, including those with a pattern reflecting regional variations would help to assure reliability and a range of projections, indicating where models agree and disagree. This paper determines how nine new patterned-scaled sea-level rise scenarios (plus the uniform and patterned ensemble mean rises) influence global and regional coastal impacts (wetland loss, dry land loss due to erosion and the expected number of people flooded per year by extreme sea levels). The DIVA coastal impacts model was used under an A1B scenario, and assumed defences were not upgraded as conditions evolve. For seven out of nine climate models, impacts occurred at a proportional rate to global sea-level rise. For the remaining two models, higher than average rise in sea level was projected in northern latitudes or around populated coasts thus skewing global impact projections compared with the ensemble global mean. Regional variability in impacts were compared using the ensemble mean uniform and patterned scenarios: The largest relative difference in impacts occurred around the Mediterranean coast, and the largest absolute differences around low-lying populated coasts, such as south, south-east and east Asia. Uniform projections of sea-level rise impacts remain a useful method to determine global impacts, but improved regional scale models of sea-level rise, particularly around semi-enclosed seas and densely populated low-lying coasts will provide improved regional impact projections and a characterisation of their uncertainties.
Brown, S.
dd3c5852-78cc-435a-9846-4f3f540f2840
Nicholls, R.J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Lowe, J.A.
16f7a8e7-f872-4801-8f57-c305ffb1106d
Hinkel, J.
ad8c8187-dcca-42f5-84e0-75d30a1e7875
Brown, S.
dd3c5852-78cc-435a-9846-4f3f540f2840
Nicholls, R.J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Lowe, J.A.
16f7a8e7-f872-4801-8f57-c305ffb1106d
Hinkel, J.
ad8c8187-dcca-42f5-84e0-75d30a1e7875

Brown, S., Nicholls, R.J., Lowe, J.A. and Hinkel, J. (2013) Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: an application of DIVA. Climatic Change. (doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0925-y).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Due to complexities of creating sea-level rise scenarios, impacts of climate-induced sea-level rise are often produced from a limited number of models assuming a global uniform rise in sea level. A greater number of models, including those with a pattern reflecting regional variations would help to assure reliability and a range of projections, indicating where models agree and disagree. This paper determines how nine new patterned-scaled sea-level rise scenarios (plus the uniform and patterned ensemble mean rises) influence global and regional coastal impacts (wetland loss, dry land loss due to erosion and the expected number of people flooded per year by extreme sea levels). The DIVA coastal impacts model was used under an A1B scenario, and assumed defences were not upgraded as conditions evolve. For seven out of nine climate models, impacts occurred at a proportional rate to global sea-level rise. For the remaining two models, higher than average rise in sea level was projected in northern latitudes or around populated coasts thus skewing global impact projections compared with the ensemble global mean. Regional variability in impacts were compared using the ensemble mean uniform and patterned scenarios: The largest relative difference in impacts occurred around the Mediterranean coast, and the largest absolute differences around low-lying populated coasts, such as south, south-east and east Asia. Uniform projections of sea-level rise impacts remain a useful method to determine global impacts, but improved regional scale models of sea-level rise, particularly around semi-enclosed seas and densely populated low-lying coasts will provide improved regional impact projections and a characterisation of their uncertainties.

PDF
__soton.ac.uk_ude_PersonalFiles_Users_sb20_mydocuments_Work_ResearchWork_QUEST_April24_paper_final_paper_060913_final_revised_050913_final_text_brown_final_for_eprints.pdf - Accepted Manuscript
Download (698kB)

More information

Published date: October 2013
Organisations: Energy & Climate Change Group

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 358819
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/358819
PURE UUID: 13843802-618a-4bf5-9c55-9a4e35f971e5
ORCID for S. Brown: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-1185-1962
ORCID for R.J. Nicholls: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 14 Oct 2013 13:33
Last modified: 06 Jun 2018 12:44

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: S. Brown ORCID iD
Author: R.J. Nicholls ORCID iD
Author: J.A. Lowe
Author: J. Hinkel

University divisions

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×