Quantifying recent acceleration in sea level unrelated to internal climate variability
Quantifying recent acceleration in sea level unrelated to internal climate variability
Sea level observations suggest that the rate of sea level rise has accelerated during the last 20?years. However, the presence of considerable decadal-scale variability, especially on a regional scale, makes it difficult to assess whether the observed changes are due to natural or anthropogenic causes. Here we use a regression model with atmospheric pressure, wind, and climate indices as independent variables to quantify the contribution of internal climate variability to the sea level at nine tide gauges from around the world for the period 1920–2011. Removing this contribution reveals a statistically significant acceleration (0.022?±?0.015?mm/yr2) between 1952 and 2011, which is unique over the whole period. Furthermore, we have found that the acceleration is increasing over time. This acceleration appears to be the result of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, along with changes in volcanic forcing and tropospheric aerosol loading.
sea level, acceleration, tide gauge, internal climate variability, external forcing
3661-3666
Calafat, F.M.
7c43d62a-c376-446c-93b4-87d4c1bd9d05
Chambers, D.P.
a27129a4-fcbb-4b56-96d4-a285ac7a23f6
28 July 2013
Calafat, F.M.
7c43d62a-c376-446c-93b4-87d4c1bd9d05
Chambers, D.P.
a27129a4-fcbb-4b56-96d4-a285ac7a23f6
Calafat, F.M. and Chambers, D.P.
(2013)
Quantifying recent acceleration in sea level unrelated to internal climate variability.
Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (14), .
(doi:10.1002/grl.50731).
Abstract
Sea level observations suggest that the rate of sea level rise has accelerated during the last 20?years. However, the presence of considerable decadal-scale variability, especially on a regional scale, makes it difficult to assess whether the observed changes are due to natural or anthropogenic causes. Here we use a regression model with atmospheric pressure, wind, and climate indices as independent variables to quantify the contribution of internal climate variability to the sea level at nine tide gauges from around the world for the period 1920–2011. Removing this contribution reveals a statistically significant acceleration (0.022?±?0.015?mm/yr2) between 1952 and 2011, which is unique over the whole period. Furthermore, we have found that the acceleration is increasing over time. This acceleration appears to be the result of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, along with changes in volcanic forcing and tropospheric aerosol loading.
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Published date: 28 July 2013
Keywords:
sea level, acceleration, tide gauge, internal climate variability, external forcing
Organisations:
Ocean and Earth Science
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 358829
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/358829
ISSN: 0094-8276
PURE UUID: 65716f5a-565b-481c-8b78-ddda41ad3072
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Date deposited: 11 Oct 2013 15:30
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 15:08
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Author:
F.M. Calafat
Author:
D.P. Chambers
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