Public opinion, responsiveness and constraint: Britain's three immigration policy regimes

Abstract

We examine the links between public opinion and policy in the UK over the past thirty years. We show that public views about immigration are responsive to changes in immigration levels and differences between migrant groups, and that policymakers are sensitive to these changes. Policymakers look to respond to the public mood on migration, but face growing constraints in doing so. The interaction of public opinion, policy and constraint has produced three distinct policy regimes. In the first, from 1982-1997, policymakers faced few constraints, immigration was tightly controlled and the public were unconcerned about the issue. In the second, from 1997-2004, migration policy was selectively liberalised in response to external and interest group pressures, producing increasing inflows and growing public demands for restriction. In the third, from 2004 to the time of writing, public demand for restriction is strong but policymakers face significant constraints in responding. In all periods, policymakers seek to focus restriction on the migrant streams most opposed by the public, but as they have lost discretionary power over the issue they have been forced to take action against more economically valuable and socially accepted migrant streams. The growing constraints on policymakers have therefore sharpened the trade-off between the "responsive" government of meeting public demands for immigrations restriction and the "responsible" government goal of providing for the needs of a flexible, globally integrated economy.

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ORCID for Will Jennings: orcid.org/0000-0001-9007-8896

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