Utilising expert opinion to improve the measurement of international migration in Europe
Utilising expert opinion to improve the measurement of international migration in Europe
In this article, we first discuss the need to augment reported flows of international migration in Europe with additional knowledge gained from experts on measurement, quality and coverage. Second, we present our method for eliciting this information. Third, we describe how this information is converted into prior distributions for subsequent use in a Bayesian model for estimating migration flows amongst countries in the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA). The article concludes with an assessment of the importance of expert information and a discussion of lessons learned from the elicitation process.
bayesian modelling, elicitation, expert knowledge, migration statistics, delphi survey
583-607
Wisniowski, Arkadiusz
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Bijak, Jakub
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Christiansen, Solveig
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Forster, Jonathan J.
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Keilman, Nico
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Raymer, James
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Smith, Peter W.F.
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November 2013
Wisniowski, Arkadiusz
ec9da054-45f0-4393-ad91-87e8f9750ae9
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Christiansen, Solveig
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Forster, Jonathan J.
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Keilman, Nico
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Raymer, James
ed2973c1-b78d-4166-baf3-4e18f1b24070
Smith, Peter W.F.
961a01a3-bf4c-43ca-9599-5be4fd5d3940
Wisniowski, Arkadiusz, Bijak, Jakub, Christiansen, Solveig, Forster, Jonathan J., Keilman, Nico, Raymer, James and Smith, Peter W.F.
(2013)
Utilising expert opinion to improve the measurement of international migration in Europe.
Journal of Official Statistics, 29 (4), .
(doi:10.2478/jos-2013-0041).
Abstract
In this article, we first discuss the need to augment reported flows of international migration in Europe with additional knowledge gained from experts on measurement, quality and coverage. Second, we present our method for eliciting this information. Third, we describe how this information is converted into prior distributions for subsequent use in a Bayesian model for estimating migration flows amongst countries in the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA). The article concludes with an assessment of the importance of expert information and a discussion of lessons learned from the elicitation process.
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jos-2013-0041.pdf
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e-pub ahead of print date: 9 November 2013
Published date: November 2013
Keywords:
bayesian modelling, elicitation, expert knowledge, migration statistics, delphi survey
Organisations:
Social Statistics & Demography, Statistics
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 359933
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/359933
ISSN: 0282-423X
PURE UUID: 022501ff-b092-4cab-b124-f581ee92553c
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Date deposited: 18 Nov 2013 11:10
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:34
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Contributors
Author:
Arkadiusz Wisniowski
Author:
Solveig Christiansen
Author:
Jonathan J. Forster
Author:
Nico Keilman
Author:
James Raymer
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