The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Decision-making in a risky environment: the impact of complexity on participation and performance

Decision-making in a risky environment: the impact of complexity on participation and performance
Decision-making in a risky environment: the impact of complexity on participation and performance
This paper examines empirically the impact of complexity on levels of participation and performance in decision-making under uncertainty. The setting for the study is the UK off- course horserace betting market, which is characterised by important ecological advantages over laboratory or alternative naturalistic settings. Complexity is defined in terms of both the number of alternatives in the decision- maker's choice set (number of horses in a race) and the complexity of the attributes set for each horserace (handicap vs. non-handicap races).Contrary to earlier work in the area, the results indicate that bettors are not inhibited by complexity; indeed, participation rates are significantly higher for races with large numbers of runners (alternatives). Equally, and again contrary to earlier work, performance appears not to be adversely affected by the number of alternatives or the complexity of the attribute set. The robustness of the results is reinforced by adjustments which acknowledge and control for the differential random chance of correct decision-making across groups of events with differing complexity
94-82
University of Southampton
Johnson, J.
6d9f1a51-38a8-4011-a792-bfc82040fac4
Bruce, A.
0e0148fa-8760-4724-b10a-8ea55883328a
Johnson, J.
6d9f1a51-38a8-4011-a792-bfc82040fac4
Bruce, A.
0e0148fa-8760-4724-b10a-8ea55883328a

Johnson, J. and Bruce, A. (1994) Decision-making in a risky environment: the impact of complexity on participation and performance (Discussion Papers in Accounting & Finance, 94-82) Southampton, UK. University of Southampton

Record type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)

Abstract

This paper examines empirically the impact of complexity on levels of participation and performance in decision-making under uncertainty. The setting for the study is the UK off- course horserace betting market, which is characterised by important ecological advantages over laboratory or alternative naturalistic settings. Complexity is defined in terms of both the number of alternatives in the decision- maker's choice set (number of horses in a race) and the complexity of the attributes set for each horserace (handicap vs. non-handicap races).Contrary to earlier work in the area, the results indicate that bettors are not inhibited by complexity; indeed, participation rates are significantly higher for races with large numbers of runners (alternatives). Equally, and again contrary to earlier work, performance appears not to be adversely affected by the number of alternatives or the complexity of the attribute set. The robustness of the results is reinforced by adjustments which acknowledge and control for the differential random chance of correct decision-making across groups of events with differing complexity

This record has no associated files available for download.

More information

Published date: 1994

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 36050
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/36050
PURE UUID: a491a419-d8af-4134-b0c0-7e7f51162fc3

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 03 May 2007
Last modified: 11 Dec 2021 15:30

Export record

Contributors

Author: J. Johnson
Author: A. Bruce

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×