Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand

Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand Dr Ben Anderson Sustainable Energy Research Centre University of Southampton @dataknut IMA 2013 Canberra, December 12th 2013

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption Contents  What & Why  How?  Results – Overall consumption – Consumption inequalities  Conclusions & future Directions @dataknut 2

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption Contents  What & Why  How? ?  Results – Overall consumption – Consumption inequalities  Conclusions & future Directions @dataknut 3

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption Digression: Geography  Southampton (UK) @dataknut 4

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption Digression: What’s a small area?  In this case… – English Lower Layer Super Output Areas – Census 2001 LSOAs – c. 630 households each – 148 in Southampton City @dataknut 5

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption What & Why  Basically we want something for nothing – Small area estimates of energy demand – Without a bespoke energy census  Why? – Infrastructure planning – Energy efficiency intervention analysis – Politics! @dataknut 6

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption The problem:  Small area summaries exist  But they are aggregates – Or averages  And we want a micro-level model – To micro-simulate change… @dataknut 7

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption What can we do?  A bespoke energy census – ££££££££££££££££££££ @dataknut 8

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption What can we do?  A bespoke energy census – ££££££££££££££££££££  A large sample energy survey covering all LSOAs – ££££££££££ @dataknut 9

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption What can we do?  A bespoke energy census – ££££££££££££££££££££  A large sample energy survey covering all LSOAs – ££££££££££  Small Area Estimation – Take existing area level data – Take (ideally) an existing large n survey – Combine £ @dataknut 10

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption Small Area Estimation  Econometric approaches Income, income deprivation, income inequality smoking prevalence, obesity, consumption expenditure, CO2, water… – Well known – Multi-level Models – Usually requires census microdata for anything other Innovation Network: than means “Evaluating and improving small area estimation methods”  Re-weighting (and other) approaches – Increasingly http://eprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3210/ well known – 'Spatial microsimulation' – Does not require census microdata @dataknut 11

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption Contents  What & Why Estimation  How?  Results – Overall consumption – Consumption inequalities  Conclusions & Future Directions @dataknut 12

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption Data  Data – Living Costs and Food Survey 2008-2010 Consumption proxies (reported energy expenditure) – Census 2001 (2011)  Projection – Projected ‘surveys’ – Projected ‘census’  So far… @dataknut 13

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption Conceptually… LSOA census ‘constraint’ tables Survey data cases If Region = 1 LSOA 1.1 (Region1) If Region = 2 @dataknut Weights LSOA 2.1 (Region2) Iterative proportional fitting Ballas et al (2005) 14

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption Key First Job:  Choose your constraints Census data Survey data  You may have little choice @dataknut 16

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption Key First Job:  The constraints – Selected by stepwise regression Expenditure Number of persons Employment Status Accommodation type Number of earners Age of HRP Age of HRP Employment Status Most important Share of expenditure Composition Number of rooms Number of children Least important R sq @dataknut Ethnicity (non-white) 0.136 0.01 19

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption IPF…  Well known!  Deming and Stephan 1940 – Fienberg 1970; Wong 1992  A way of iteratively adjusting statistical tables – To give known margins (row/column totals)  In this case – Create weights for each case so LSOA totals ‘fit’ constraints – Weighting ‘down’ @dataknut 20

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption Internal Validation methods  Use of constraints to re-create the Census tables  Difference = Absolute Error – – Total Absolute Error (TAE) = sum of all errors Standardised AE = TAE/(n persons x n constraint categories)  Smith et al: – SAE of less than 20% and ideally less than 10% – Consumption Mean SAE p90 Ethnicity 2.18% 3.05% Number of children 0.11% 0.22% Number of rooms 0.05% 0.10% Employment status (HRP) 0.88% 1.22% Age (HRP) 0.34% 0.75% Tenure 0.07% 0.14% Accomodation type 0.21% 0.51% Number of persons 0.00% 0.00% in 90% of the areas is desirable. @dataknut 21

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption Preliminary results: Electricity  Mean weekly £  Modelled  Census 2001  LC&F Survey 20082010 @dataknut 22

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption Validation: Electricity  Mean weekly £  Observed @LSOA  DECC 2010  Spearman: 0.317 @dataknut 23

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption Preliminary results: Electricity  Total weekly £  Modelled  Census 2001  LC&F Survey 2008-2010 @dataknut 24

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption Validation: Electricity  Total weekly £  Observed @LSOA  DECC 2010  Spearman: 0.509 @dataknut 25

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption What is causing the error?  Heating! – @dataknut 2011 data 26

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption What is causing the error?  Heating! – 2011 data  Housing growth  Combined @dataknut 27

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption Consumption inequality  Area level gini  R = -0.413 – @dataknut (p < 0.001) 28

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption Consumption inequality  Area level gini  R = 0.463 – @dataknut (p < 0.001) 29

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption My big worry  Data quality @dataknut 30

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption Contents  What & Why  How?  Results – Overall consumption – Consumption inequalities  Conclusions & Future Directions @dataknut 31

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption Conclusions  Outliers and errors are informative  Reported consumption data – Could be dangerous  Census 2011 central heating – Critical new constraint @dataknut 32

Small Area Estimates of Electricity Consumption Future directions  Update for 2011 data  Census projection 1981 -> 2021  Use measured energy consumption  Contact: – b.anderson@soton.ac.uk @dataknut 33

Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand

by Ben Anderson, Senior Research Fellow, Sustainable Energy Research Group at University of Southampton on Dec 12, 2013

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Producing and validating small area estimates of household electricity demand Presentation Transcript