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Recent trends of ecosystem services and human wellbeing in the Bangladesh delta

Recent trends of ecosystem services and human wellbeing in the Bangladesh delta
Recent trends of ecosystem services and human wellbeing in the Bangladesh delta
The report describes a preliminary assessment of the dynamical properties of the complex social-ecological system that defines the modern Bangladesh coastal zone. A range of historical data for ecosystem services and indicators of human wellbeing is used to describe the evolving trade-offs between ecosystem services and poverty and the evidence for past and future threshold changes. Since the 1980s, increasing GDP and per capita income mirror rising levels of food and inland fish production. As a result, the size of population below the poverty line has reduced by ~10% over the past 20 years. In contrast, non-food ecosystem services such as water availability, water quality and land stability have deteriorated. The extent to which the growing levels of food production and ecological deterioration are directly linked is difficult to judge, though conversion of rice fields to shrimp farms is almost certainly a factor in increasing soil and surface water salinity. An environmental Kuznets curve analysis suggests that the point at which growing economic wealth feeds back into effective environmental protection has not yet been reached for water resources. Trends in indicators of final ecosystem services and human wellbeing point to widespread non-stationary dynamics and slowly changing variables, declining resilience, and an increased probability of positive feedbacks driving systemic threshold changes/tipping points in the near future. Increasingly frequent cyclones and flood events increases the likelihood of threshold changes. The results will feed into simulation models and strategies that can define alternative and sustainable paths for land management
3
University of Southampton
Hossain, M.D.
1a073516-bf24-43aa-a26b-7114ab89bb1b
Dearing, John A.
dff37300-b8a6-4406-ad84-89aa01de03d7
Hossain, M.D.
1a073516-bf24-43aa-a26b-7114ab89bb1b
Dearing, John A.
dff37300-b8a6-4406-ad84-89aa01de03d7

Hossain, M.D. and Dearing, John A. (2013) Recent trends of ecosystem services and human wellbeing in the Bangladesh delta (Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) Deltas Fast Track Reports, 3) Southampton, GB. University of Southampton 64pp.

Record type: Monograph (Working Paper)

Abstract

The report describes a preliminary assessment of the dynamical properties of the complex social-ecological system that defines the modern Bangladesh coastal zone. A range of historical data for ecosystem services and indicators of human wellbeing is used to describe the evolving trade-offs between ecosystem services and poverty and the evidence for past and future threshold changes. Since the 1980s, increasing GDP and per capita income mirror rising levels of food and inland fish production. As a result, the size of population below the poverty line has reduced by ~10% over the past 20 years. In contrast, non-food ecosystem services such as water availability, water quality and land stability have deteriorated. The extent to which the growing levels of food production and ecological deterioration are directly linked is difficult to judge, though conversion of rice fields to shrimp farms is almost certainly a factor in increasing soil and surface water salinity. An environmental Kuznets curve analysis suggests that the point at which growing economic wealth feeds back into effective environmental protection has not yet been reached for water resources. Trends in indicators of final ecosystem services and human wellbeing point to widespread non-stationary dynamics and slowly changing variables, declining resilience, and an increased probability of positive feedbacks driving systemic threshold changes/tipping points in the near future. Increasingly frequent cyclones and flood events increases the likelihood of threshold changes. The results will feed into simulation models and strategies that can define alternative and sustainable paths for land management

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More information

Published date: April 2013
Organisations: Palaeoenvironment Laboratory (PLUS)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 360583
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/360583
PURE UUID: 3022ade7-f6a1-4878-a920-1a2654f7c022
ORCID for John A. Dearing: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-1466-9640

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 03 Jan 2014 10:39
Last modified: 23 Jul 2022 01:53

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Contributors

Author: M.D. Hossain
Author: John A. Dearing ORCID iD

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