Shang, Han Lin, Smith, Peter W.F., Bijak, Jakub and Wisniowski, Arkadiusz , McGowan, Teresa (ed.) (2013) A functional data analysis approach for forecasting population: a case study for the United Kingdom Southampton, GB. ESRC Centre for Population Change 42pp. (ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper Series, 41)
Abstract
Cohort component models are often used to model the evolution of an age-specific population, and are particularly useful to highlight which demographic component contributes the most to population change. Many methods have been proposed to forecast four demographic components, namely mortality, fertility, emigration and immigration. These existing methods are sometimes considered from a deterministic viewpoint, which in practice can be quite restrictive. The statistical method we propose is a multilevel functional data analytic approach, where the mortality and migration for females and males are modelled and forecasted jointly. The forecast uncertainty associated with each component is incorporated through bootstrapping. Using the historical data for the United Kingdom from 1975 to 2009, we found that the proposed method shows good in-sample forecast accuracy for the holdout data between years 2000 and 2009. Moreover, we produce out-of-sample population forecasts from 2010 to 2030, and compare our forecasts with those produced by the Office for National Statistics
More information
Identifiers
Catalogue record
Export record
Contributors
University divisions
- Faculties (pre 2018 reorg) > Faculty of Social, Human and Mathematical Sciences (pre 2018 reorg) > Social Sciences (pre 2018 reorg) > Social Statistics & Demography (pre 2018 reorg)
Current Faculties > Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Economic, Social and Political Sciences > Social Sciences (pre 2018 reorg) > Social Statistics & Demography (pre 2018 reorg)
School of Economic, Social and Political Sciences > Social Sciences (pre 2018 reorg) > Social Statistics & Demography (pre 2018 reorg) - Current Faculties > Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Economic, Social and Political Sciences > Centre for Population Change
School of Economic, Social and Political Sciences > Centre for Population Change
Download statistics
Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.