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Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China

Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China
Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China
BACKGROUND:
Transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria is dependent on vector availability, biting rates and parasite development. In turn, each of these is influenced by climatic conditions. Correlations have previously been detected between seasonal rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence patterns in various settings. An understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria, and their weather drivers, can provide vital information for control and elimination activities. This research aimed to describe temporal patterns in malaria, rainfall and temperature, and to examine the relationships between these variables within four counties of Yunnan Province, China.
METHODS:
Plasmodium vivax malaria surveillance data (1991-2006), and average monthly temperature and rainfall were acquired. Seasonal trend decomposition was used to examine secular trends and seasonal patterns in malaria. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the weather drivers of malaria seasonality, including the lag periods between weather conditions and malaria incidence.
RESULTS:
There was a declining trend in malaria incidence in all four counties. Increasing temperature resulted in increased malaria risk in all four areas and increasing rainfall resulted in increased malaria risk in one area and decreased malaria risk in one area. The lag times for these associations varied between areas.
CONCLUSIONS:
The differences detected between the four counties highlight the need for local understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria and its climatic drivers.
1475-2875
452
Wardrop, Nicola A.
8f3a8171-0727-4375-bc68-10e7d616e176
Barnett, Adrian
37b122ea-5769-4d8e-abdc-e5e6df699fb5
Atkinson, Jo-An
f7bddf27-3ebb-4cd2-8f69-67527be21e25
Clements, Archie
f11de8e2-9a7a-4196-90f7-591d6d902dc4
Wardrop, Nicola A.
8f3a8171-0727-4375-bc68-10e7d616e176
Barnett, Adrian
37b122ea-5769-4d8e-abdc-e5e6df699fb5
Atkinson, Jo-An
f7bddf27-3ebb-4cd2-8f69-67527be21e25
Clements, Archie
f11de8e2-9a7a-4196-90f7-591d6d902dc4

Wardrop, Nicola A., Barnett, Adrian, Atkinson, Jo-An and Clements, Archie (2013) Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China. Malaria Journal, 12, 452. (doi:10.1186/1475-2875-12-452). (PMID:24350670)

Record type: Article

Abstract

BACKGROUND:
Transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria is dependent on vector availability, biting rates and parasite development. In turn, each of these is influenced by climatic conditions. Correlations have previously been detected between seasonal rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence patterns in various settings. An understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria, and their weather drivers, can provide vital information for control and elimination activities. This research aimed to describe temporal patterns in malaria, rainfall and temperature, and to examine the relationships between these variables within four counties of Yunnan Province, China.
METHODS:
Plasmodium vivax malaria surveillance data (1991-2006), and average monthly temperature and rainfall were acquired. Seasonal trend decomposition was used to examine secular trends and seasonal patterns in malaria. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the weather drivers of malaria seasonality, including the lag periods between weather conditions and malaria incidence.
RESULTS:
There was a declining trend in malaria incidence in all four counties. Increasing temperature resulted in increased malaria risk in all four areas and increasing rainfall resulted in increased malaria risk in one area and decreased malaria risk in one area. The lag times for these associations varied between areas.
CONCLUSIONS:
The differences detected between the four counties highlight the need for local understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria and its climatic drivers.

Text
Wardropetal_MalariaJournal_2013_MalariaYunnanTimeSeries.pdf - Version of Record
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More information

Published date: 18 December 2013
Organisations: PHEW – P (Population Health), Population, Health & Wellbeing (PHeW)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 360922
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/360922
ISSN: 1475-2875
PURE UUID: 39175a51-0b43-4792-86c9-5c02a7452692

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Date deposited: 08 Jan 2014 16:58
Last modified: 18 Nov 2019 20:34

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Contributors

Author: Adrian Barnett
Author: Jo-An Atkinson
Author: Archie Clements

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