Tatem, Andrew J., Huang, Zhuojie, Narib, Clothilde, Kumar, Udayan, Kandula, Deepika, Pindolia, Deepa K., Smith, David L., Cohen, Justin M., Graupe, Bonita, Uusiku, Petrina and Lourenco, Christopher (2014) Integrating rapid risk mapping and mobile phone call record data for strategic malaria elimination planning. Malaria Journal, 13 (52). (doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-52).
Abstract
As successful malaria control programmes re-orientate towards elimination, the identification of transmission foci, targeting of attack measures to high-risk areas and management of importation risk become high priorities. When resources are limited and transmission is varying seasonally, approaches that can rapidly prioritize areas for surveillance and control can be valuable, and the most appropriate attack measure for a particular location is likely to differ depending on whether it exports or imports malaria infections.
Methods/Results: Here, using the example of Namibia, a method for targeting of interventions using surveillance data, satellite imagery, and mobile phone call records to support elimination planning is described. One year of aggregated movement patterns for over a million people across Namibia are analyzed, and linked with case-based risk maps built on satellite imagery. By combining case-data and movement, the way human population movements connect transmission risk areas is demonstrated. Communities that were strongly connected by relatively higher levels of movement were then identified, and net export and import of travellers and infection risks by region were quantified. These maps can aid the design of targeted interventions to maximally reduce the number of cases exported to other regions while employing appropriate interventions to manage risk in places that import them.
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