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The SPR systems model as a conceptual foundation for rapid integrated risk appraisals: lessons from Europe

The SPR systems model as a conceptual foundation for rapid integrated risk appraisals: lessons from Europe
The SPR systems model as a conceptual foundation for rapid integrated risk appraisals: lessons from Europe
Coastal floodplains are complex regions that form the interface between human, physical and natural systems. This paper describes the development, application and evaluation of a conceptual foundation for quantitative integrated floodplain risk assessments using the recently-developed SPR systems model. The SPR systems model is a conceptual model that combines the well-established Source–Pathway–Receptor (SPR) approach with the concept of system diagrams. In comparison to the conventional approach, the systems model provides spatially explicit quasi-2D descriptions of the floodplain in terms of constituent elements and possible element linkages. The quasi-2D SPR, as it will henceforth be referred to in this paper, is not the final product of this work, but is an important intermediate stage which has been pursued as part of a wider European flood risk project THESEUS (www.theseusproject.eu). Further research is currently on-going to provide full quantification of the quasi-2D SPR, and to add further refinements such that hydraulic assessments could follow on easily and rapidly from the results of these appraisals.

The first part of the paper synthesises current conceptual treatment of coastal floodplains and identifies areas for improvement in describing coastal floodplains as complex systems. The synthesis demonstrates that the conceptual foundation of a ‘typical’ flood risk study often achieves a less comprehensive and integrated description of the floodplain than the quantitative models which it informs. From this synthesis, the quasi-2D SPR is identified as a more robust and informative conceptual foundation for an integrated risk assessment. The quasi-2D SPR has been applied to seven European coastal floodplains as part of the THESEUS project. The second part of the paper discusses in detail the application of the quasi-2D SPR to three contrasting floodplain systems — an estuary, a coastal peninsula and a mixed open coast/estuary site. The quasi-2D SPR provides a consistent approach for achieving comprehensive floodplain descriptions that are individual to each coastal floodplain. These are obtained through a robust, participatory model-building exercise, that facilitates developing a shared understanding of the system. The constructed model is a powerful tool for structuring and integrating existing knowledge across multiple disciplines. Applications of the quasi-2D SPR provide key insights into the characteristics of complex coastal floodplains — insights that will inform the quantification process. Finally, the paper briefly describes the on-going quantitative extension to the quasi-2D SPR.
coastal, flood risk, integrated, conceptual model, SPR
0378-3839
15-31
Narayan, Siddharth
ea51a94c-b3e0-419a-9b15-a25919ae9258
Nicholls, Robert J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Clarke, Derek
9746f367-1df2-4e0e-8d71-5ecfc9ddd000
Hanson, Susan
dc079588-5eb2-4177-8df5-01fa493d8c16
Reeve, Dominic
7379ec4c-8dc8-40d8-9365-a17bf84c1f99
Horrillo-Caraballo, Jose
c29b841c-47fe-465e-a17f-b82bbdd56323
le Cozannet, Gonéri
ac33ad15-3dbd-4166-a498-986cc747ab4f
Hissel, Francois
8d57a2c4-3335-4af3-a305-f27039de7a81
Kowalska, Beata
ebc46d2b-91d6-4c06-8d45-ab218fe69588
Parda, Rafal
4b089c0e-0e1a-4c22-959d-90946d96efee
Willems, Patrick
9dfc023f-9447-4138-b5a6-127e005ab8df
Ohle, Nino
27dda111-ba6f-418f-b99e-9f9bf8ae57da
Zanuttigh, Barbara
e54851f2-7ac3-4d2d-94dd-561961c592f1
Losada, Inigo
124510e5-7477-4e3d-90ae-8be45f1f27b3
Ge, Jianzhong
dabb5b18-5375-4814-afb6-7ba1b90e193d
Trifonova, Ekaterina
87969976-1097-4549-a0a8-2584050807f5
Penning-Rowsell, Edmund
cdaf7079-d968-4878-bbce-8f7451a93f63
Vanderlinden, Jean Paul
fd37cffe-16bc-4420-b7ff-b18bf1c1c964
Narayan, Siddharth
ea51a94c-b3e0-419a-9b15-a25919ae9258
Nicholls, Robert J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Clarke, Derek
9746f367-1df2-4e0e-8d71-5ecfc9ddd000
Hanson, Susan
dc079588-5eb2-4177-8df5-01fa493d8c16
Reeve, Dominic
7379ec4c-8dc8-40d8-9365-a17bf84c1f99
Horrillo-Caraballo, Jose
c29b841c-47fe-465e-a17f-b82bbdd56323
le Cozannet, Gonéri
ac33ad15-3dbd-4166-a498-986cc747ab4f
Hissel, Francois
8d57a2c4-3335-4af3-a305-f27039de7a81
Kowalska, Beata
ebc46d2b-91d6-4c06-8d45-ab218fe69588
Parda, Rafal
4b089c0e-0e1a-4c22-959d-90946d96efee
Willems, Patrick
9dfc023f-9447-4138-b5a6-127e005ab8df
Ohle, Nino
27dda111-ba6f-418f-b99e-9f9bf8ae57da
Zanuttigh, Barbara
e54851f2-7ac3-4d2d-94dd-561961c592f1
Losada, Inigo
124510e5-7477-4e3d-90ae-8be45f1f27b3
Ge, Jianzhong
dabb5b18-5375-4814-afb6-7ba1b90e193d
Trifonova, Ekaterina
87969976-1097-4549-a0a8-2584050807f5
Penning-Rowsell, Edmund
cdaf7079-d968-4878-bbce-8f7451a93f63
Vanderlinden, Jean Paul
fd37cffe-16bc-4420-b7ff-b18bf1c1c964

Narayan, Siddharth, Nicholls, Robert J., Clarke, Derek, Hanson, Susan, Reeve, Dominic, Horrillo-Caraballo, Jose, le Cozannet, Gonéri, Hissel, Francois, Kowalska, Beata, Parda, Rafal, Willems, Patrick, Ohle, Nino, Zanuttigh, Barbara, Losada, Inigo, Ge, Jianzhong, Trifonova, Ekaterina, Penning-Rowsell, Edmund and Vanderlinden, Jean Paul (2014) The SPR systems model as a conceptual foundation for rapid integrated risk appraisals: lessons from Europe. [in special issue: Coasts@Risks: THESEUS, a New wave in Coastal Protection] Coastal Engineering, 87, 15-31. (doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.10.021).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Coastal floodplains are complex regions that form the interface between human, physical and natural systems. This paper describes the development, application and evaluation of a conceptual foundation for quantitative integrated floodplain risk assessments using the recently-developed SPR systems model. The SPR systems model is a conceptual model that combines the well-established Source–Pathway–Receptor (SPR) approach with the concept of system diagrams. In comparison to the conventional approach, the systems model provides spatially explicit quasi-2D descriptions of the floodplain in terms of constituent elements and possible element linkages. The quasi-2D SPR, as it will henceforth be referred to in this paper, is not the final product of this work, but is an important intermediate stage which has been pursued as part of a wider European flood risk project THESEUS (www.theseusproject.eu). Further research is currently on-going to provide full quantification of the quasi-2D SPR, and to add further refinements such that hydraulic assessments could follow on easily and rapidly from the results of these appraisals.

The first part of the paper synthesises current conceptual treatment of coastal floodplains and identifies areas for improvement in describing coastal floodplains as complex systems. The synthesis demonstrates that the conceptual foundation of a ‘typical’ flood risk study often achieves a less comprehensive and integrated description of the floodplain than the quantitative models which it informs. From this synthesis, the quasi-2D SPR is identified as a more robust and informative conceptual foundation for an integrated risk assessment. The quasi-2D SPR has been applied to seven European coastal floodplains as part of the THESEUS project. The second part of the paper discusses in detail the application of the quasi-2D SPR to three contrasting floodplain systems — an estuary, a coastal peninsula and a mixed open coast/estuary site. The quasi-2D SPR provides a consistent approach for achieving comprehensive floodplain descriptions that are individual to each coastal floodplain. These are obtained through a robust, participatory model-building exercise, that facilitates developing a shared understanding of the system. The constructed model is a powerful tool for structuring and integrating existing knowledge across multiple disciplines. Applications of the quasi-2D SPR provide key insights into the characteristics of complex coastal floodplains — insights that will inform the quantification process. Finally, the paper briefly describes the on-going quantitative extension to the quasi-2D SPR.

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More information

e-pub ahead of print date: 22 November 2013
Published date: May 2014
Keywords: coastal, flood risk, integrated, conceptual model, SPR
Organisations: Water & Environmental Engineering Group

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 363624
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/363624
ISSN: 0378-3839
PURE UUID: cc99fdf1-e041-4806-931e-a860bcfda38c
ORCID for Robert J. Nicholls: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109
ORCID for Derek Clarke: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-5433-5258

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Date deposited: 27 Mar 2014 16:42
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:18

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Contributors

Author: Siddharth Narayan
Author: Derek Clarke ORCID iD
Author: Susan Hanson
Author: Dominic Reeve
Author: Jose Horrillo-Caraballo
Author: Gonéri le Cozannet
Author: Francois Hissel
Author: Beata Kowalska
Author: Rafal Parda
Author: Patrick Willems
Author: Nino Ohle
Author: Barbara Zanuttigh
Author: Inigo Losada
Author: Jianzhong Ge
Author: Ekaterina Trifonova
Author: Edmund Penning-Rowsell
Author: Jean Paul Vanderlinden

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