Forecasting Scottish migration in the context of the 2014 constitutional change debate
Forecasting Scottish migration in the context of the 2014 constitutional change debate
Migration to and from Scotland might be affected by the outcome of the 2014 Scottish referendum on the constitutional future of the United Kingdom. This potential change in migration has not been thoroughly analysed to date. The aim of this paper is thus to present a set of predictions of the possible effects of Scottish independence on internal and international migration. In particular, different sources of uncertainty of future migration flows are examined. The presented forecasts are based on the available historical data on migration flows, as well as on the opinions of a panel of experts on future migration trends. Bayesian statistical inference is used to combine different sources of uncertainty in a coherent manner. The results indicate that there is substantial uncertainty about future migration to and from Scotland, which increases with the forecast horizon. The most uncertain flow is international immigration to Scotland. Emigration from Scotland is more likely than not to increase in the near future, whereas migration between Scotland and the rest of the UK is expected to remain at similar levels to the present, irrespective of the outcome of the 2014 independence referendum.
bayesian modelling, constitutional referendum, migration, scotland, time series, uncertainty
455-464
Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz
ec9da054-45f0-4393-ad91-87e8f9750ae9
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Shang, Han Lin
1625ecc8-1ab1-4ef8-b87e-e5a2382d34c5
July 2014
Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz
ec9da054-45f0-4393-ad91-87e8f9750ae9
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Shang, Han Lin
1625ecc8-1ab1-4ef8-b87e-e5a2382d34c5
Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz, Bijak, Jakub and Shang, Han Lin
(2014)
Forecasting Scottish migration in the context of the 2014 constitutional change debate.
Population, Space and Place, 20 (5), .
(doi:10.1002/psp.1856).
Abstract
Migration to and from Scotland might be affected by the outcome of the 2014 Scottish referendum on the constitutional future of the United Kingdom. This potential change in migration has not been thoroughly analysed to date. The aim of this paper is thus to present a set of predictions of the possible effects of Scottish independence on internal and international migration. In particular, different sources of uncertainty of future migration flows are examined. The presented forecasts are based on the available historical data on migration flows, as well as on the opinions of a panel of experts on future migration trends. Bayesian statistical inference is used to combine different sources of uncertainty in a coherent manner. The results indicate that there is substantial uncertainty about future migration to and from Scotland, which increases with the forecast horizon. The most uncertain flow is international immigration to Scotland. Emigration from Scotland is more likely than not to increase in the near future, whereas migration between Scotland and the rest of the UK is expected to remain at similar levels to the present, irrespective of the outcome of the 2014 independence referendum.
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e-pub ahead of print date: 23 April 2014
Published date: July 2014
Keywords:
bayesian modelling, constitutional referendum, migration, scotland, time series, uncertainty
Organisations:
Social Statistics & Demography
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 364372
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/364372
ISSN: 1544-8444
PURE UUID: 3bbe68a7-c5a4-4322-a2fc-4fc6048252ff
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Date deposited: 24 Apr 2014 11:29
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:34
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Author:
Arkadiusz Wiśniowski
Author:
Han Lin Shang
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