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Defining and observing stages of climate-mediated range shifts in marine systems

Defining and observing stages of climate-mediated range shifts in marine systems
Defining and observing stages of climate-mediated range shifts in marine systems
Climate change is transforming the structure of biological communities through the geographic extension and contraction of species’ ranges. Range edges are naturally dynamic, and shifts in the location of range edges occur at different rates and are driven by different mechanisms. This leads to challenges when seeking to generalize responses among taxa and across systems. We focus on warming-related range shifts in marine systems to describe extensions and contractions as stages. Range extensions occur as a sequence of (1) arrival, (2) population increase, and (3) persistence. By contrast, range contractions occur progressively as (1) performance decline, (2) population decrease and (3) local extinction. This stage-based framework can be broadly applied to geographic shifts in any species, life-history stage, or population subset. Ideally the probability of transitioning through progressive range shift stages could be estimated from empirical understanding of the various factors influencing range shift rates. Nevertheless, abundance and occupancy data at the spatial resolution required to quantify range shifts are often unavailable and we suggest the pragmatic solution of considering observations of range shifts within a confidence framework incorporating the type, amount and quality of data. We use case studies to illustrate how diverse evidence sources can be used to stage range extensions and contractions and assign confidence that an observed range shift stage has been reached. We then evaluate the utility of trait-based risk (invasion) and vulnerability (extinction) frameworks for application in a range shift context and find inadequacies, indicating an important area for development. We further consider factors that influence rates of extension and contraction of range edges in marine habitats. Finally, we suggest approaches required to increase our capacity to observe and predict geographic range shifts under climate change.
Species redistribution, Attribution, Prediction, Biogeography, Warming, Abundance–occupancy relationship
0959-3780
27-38
Bates, Amanda E.
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Pecl, Gretta T.
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Frusher, Stewart
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Hobday, Alistair J.
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Wernberg, Thomas
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Smale, Dan A.
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Sunday, Jennifer M.
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Hill, Nicole A.
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Dulvy, Nicholas K.
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Colwell, Robert K.
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Holbrook, Neil J.
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Fulton, Elizabeth A.
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Slawinski, Dirk
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Feng, Ming
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Edgar, Graham J.
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Radford, Ben T.
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Thompson, Peter A.
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Watson, Reg A.
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Bates, Amanda E.
a96e267d-6d22-4232-b7ed-ce4e448a2a34
Pecl, Gretta T.
5c17c711-08b3-4fe2-b0e4-9c43613b7794
Frusher, Stewart
70fc5213-9264-4f42-a368-fde6ff5b10b6
Hobday, Alistair J.
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Wernberg, Thomas
bd368108-a7e1-4d4b-b4c2-6102aae7a7ff
Smale, Dan A.
9be48b19-ad5f-4f40-87c8-e0bfa799584f
Sunday, Jennifer M.
825c86f3-1fd5-45ad-a08d-804535daadf9
Hill, Nicole A.
86adc1be-02ea-4373-8009-524c56816744
Dulvy, Nicholas K.
c514f298-ee3d-40b9-8ffb-1ec56d8f8e38
Colwell, Robert K.
8a9fa14f-6577-4027-84b9-d1ee6b723905
Holbrook, Neil J.
0ce6b2f1-dbef-45e6-a9cb-6c2334888476
Fulton, Elizabeth A.
04b5f453-6eae-4ecd-8582-c281e6fe9855
Slawinski, Dirk
f2decd1b-bbd1-42e6-999f-35f41dbe5d64
Feng, Ming
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Edgar, Graham J.
7269051b-fbec-4753-be8c-1bef22e7d4ec
Radford, Ben T.
7fcdcbf0-69f4-4fde-876c-d5d08f78ee48
Thompson, Peter A.
11c523fe-9d73-4c07-acae-9aaec293ed5f
Watson, Reg A.
225e8427-7b93-41ff-82ea-fc61b67598d8

Bates, Amanda E., Pecl, Gretta T., Frusher, Stewart, Hobday, Alistair J., Wernberg, Thomas, Smale, Dan A., Sunday, Jennifer M., Hill, Nicole A., Dulvy, Nicholas K., Colwell, Robert K., Holbrook, Neil J., Fulton, Elizabeth A., Slawinski, Dirk, Feng, Ming, Edgar, Graham J., Radford, Ben T., Thompson, Peter A. and Watson, Reg A. (2014) Defining and observing stages of climate-mediated range shifts in marine systems. Global Environmental Change, 26, 27-38. (doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.03.009).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Climate change is transforming the structure of biological communities through the geographic extension and contraction of species’ ranges. Range edges are naturally dynamic, and shifts in the location of range edges occur at different rates and are driven by different mechanisms. This leads to challenges when seeking to generalize responses among taxa and across systems. We focus on warming-related range shifts in marine systems to describe extensions and contractions as stages. Range extensions occur as a sequence of (1) arrival, (2) population increase, and (3) persistence. By contrast, range contractions occur progressively as (1) performance decline, (2) population decrease and (3) local extinction. This stage-based framework can be broadly applied to geographic shifts in any species, life-history stage, or population subset. Ideally the probability of transitioning through progressive range shift stages could be estimated from empirical understanding of the various factors influencing range shift rates. Nevertheless, abundance and occupancy data at the spatial resolution required to quantify range shifts are often unavailable and we suggest the pragmatic solution of considering observations of range shifts within a confidence framework incorporating the type, amount and quality of data. We use case studies to illustrate how diverse evidence sources can be used to stage range extensions and contractions and assign confidence that an observed range shift stage has been reached. We then evaluate the utility of trait-based risk (invasion) and vulnerability (extinction) frameworks for application in a range shift context and find inadequacies, indicating an important area for development. We further consider factors that influence rates of extension and contraction of range edges in marine habitats. Finally, we suggest approaches required to increase our capacity to observe and predict geographic range shifts under climate change.

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Published date: May 2014
Keywords: Species redistribution, Attribution, Prediction, Biogeography, Warming, Abundance–occupancy relationship
Organisations: Ocean and Earth Science

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Local EPrints ID: 364604
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/364604
ISSN: 0959-3780
PURE UUID: ab0e64a9-b339-4450-83ee-e94183cc28d0

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Date deposited: 01 May 2014 16:09
Last modified: 16 Jul 2019 21:06

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Contributors

Author: Amanda E. Bates
Author: Gretta T. Pecl
Author: Stewart Frusher
Author: Alistair J. Hobday
Author: Thomas Wernberg
Author: Dan A. Smale
Author: Jennifer M. Sunday
Author: Nicole A. Hill
Author: Nicholas K. Dulvy
Author: Robert K. Colwell
Author: Neil J. Holbrook
Author: Elizabeth A. Fulton
Author: Dirk Slawinski
Author: Ming Feng
Author: Graham J. Edgar
Author: Ben T. Radford
Author: Peter A. Thompson
Author: Reg A. Watson

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