Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise
Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise
There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records.
Haigh, Ivan D.
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Wahl, Thomas
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Rohling, Eelco J.
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Price, René M.
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Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.
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Calafat, Francisco M.
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Dangendorf, Sönke
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14 April 2014
Haigh, Ivan D.
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Wahl, Thomas
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Rohling, Eelco J.
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Price, René M.
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Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.
393dcddd-f9fa-4e41-ac74-1116a8c5ad88
Calafat, Francisco M.
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Dangendorf, Sönke
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Haigh, Ivan D., Wahl, Thomas, Rohling, Eelco J., Price, René M., Pattiaratchi, Charitha B., Calafat, Francisco M. and Dangendorf, Sönke
(2014)
Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise.
Nature Communications, 5, [3635].
(doi:10.1038/ncomms4635).
Abstract
There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records.
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Accepted/In Press date: 13 March 2014
e-pub ahead of print date: 14 April 2014
Published date: 14 April 2014
Organisations:
Energy & Climate Change Group, Physical Oceanography, Marine Physics and Ocean Climate, Paleooceanography & Palaeoclimate
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 364939
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/364939
PURE UUID: 3bc3bf85-51d4-451d-9005-11621302d8b0
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Date deposited: 15 May 2014 08:59
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:26
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Contributors
Author:
René M. Price
Author:
Charitha B. Pattiaratchi
Author:
Francisco M. Calafat
Author:
Sönke Dangendorf
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