A quantified system-of-systems modeling framework for robust national infrastructure planning

Otto, A., Hall, J.W., Hickford, A.J., Nicholls, R.J., Alderson, D. and Barr, S. (2014) A quantified system-of-systems modeling framework for robust national infrastructure planning IEEE Systems Journal, PP, (99) (doi:10.1109/JSYST.2014.2361157).


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National infrastructure (NI) systems (i.e., energy, transport, water, waste, and information and communications technology) provide essential services to the economy and contribute to human well-being. These systems have evolved over centuries, being planned and implemented piecewise, and are mostly managed in isolation from one another. Here, we argue that the growing interconnection between these systems and the convergent challenges ahead (i.e., demographic, technological, and climate change) call for an integrated “system-of-systems” approach to managing NI. Toward that end, we propose a modeling framework for the long-term (to 2100) simulation of NI system performance in a highly uncertain future. The approach is based on the assessment of the performance of infrastructure services in a wide range of possible future conditions. This robust optimization is used to identify cross-sectoral strategies that ensure satisfactory infrastructure performance. We demonstrate the framework using Great Britain's NI as an example.

Item Type: Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi:10.1109/JSYST.2014.2361157
ISSNs: 1932-8184 (print)
Related URLs:
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications
Organisations: Civil Maritime & Env. Eng & Sci Unit, Transportation Group, Faculty of Engineering and the Environment
ePrint ID: 368332
Date :
Date Event
29 October 2014Published
Date Deposited: 12 Sep 2014 11:29
Last Modified: 19 Feb 2017 22:00
UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC): PROGRAMME GRANT: Long term dynamics of interdependent infrastructure systems
Funded by: EPSRC (EP/I01344X/1)
Led by: Jim William Hall
1 January 2011 to 7 February 2011
Further Information:Google Scholar
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/368332

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